The United States is preparing to introduce new sanctions against Russia, it is expected that the lower house of the US Congress will vote for the corresponding bill on Tuesday, July 25. This document has already been approved by the Senate. It is not yet clear whether US President Donald Trump will sign the decision, but White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders assured that he supports the new sanctions package.

The document, in particular, provides for a reduction in the maximum term for market financing of Russian banks under sanctions to 14 days (now 90 days), and companies in the oil and gas sector to 30 days. The sanctions, among other things, are directed against the construction of the Russian Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, through which fuel should be delivered to Germany under the Baltic Sea, bypassing Ukraine and Poland. In Brussels, this idea was ambiguous, recommending that the United States first consult with the European Union on such "sensitive issues." The sensitivity of the restrictions on Nord Stream 2 is primarily due to the fact that Germany is interested in building the gas pipeline, while some other EU countries, including Poland and Slovakia, should be happy with such a turn. However, in response to US sanctions, the EU may take countermeasures.

At the same time, the European Union may impose new sanctions against Russia because of the scandal surrounding the supply of Siemens gas turbines to the occupied Crimea.

Until now, the EU and the US have adopted sanctions against the Russian Federation almost simultaneously. Over time, other countries joined them, including Ukraine. Today, about 150 people and 40 companies are under Western sanctions. Ukrainian ones affect almost 700 people and about 300 companies, including branches of all Russian state-owned banks.

Russia did not remain in debt and introduced counter-sanctions, banning a number of Western politicians from entering its territory. However, the food embargo on the relevant products of the United States, European and other states, again including Ukraine, has received the most notoriety.

Anti-Russian sanctions in action

The imposition of sanctions, contrary to the statements of Russian politicians, has an impact on the Russian economy, and this impact is quite negative. The crisis in the Russian economy is confirmed by macro indicators. GDP growth in 2014 was only 0.7%, while the initial forecast was 2.5%. In 2015, the Russian economy collapsed by 3% at once. In 2016, GDP continued to fall by 0.2%.

The sanctions also provoked a colossal outflow of capital from the Russian Federation - in 2014 it amounted to $153 billion, in 2015 - $57.5 billion, in 2016 - $15.4 billion. “The sanctions regime makes international investment capital very nervous. In the case of tough sanctions, there is a flight of domestic capital and a colossal outflow of foreign capital, ”said Russian financier Slava Rabinovich in a commentary to Apostrophe.

Due to sanctions, the economic cooperation of the Russian Federation with other countries is being reduced. So, in 2015, the trade turnover between Russia and the EU collapsed by 40%. Cooperation with Ukraine is also on the wane - over the three years of "trade wars" trade between the countries has fallen five times.

Context

Sanctions quarreled Europe and America

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 25.07.2017

USA - EU: clash of interests

Politico 24.07.2017

US sanctions against Russia have always been

National Public Radio 07/23/2017 At the same time, according to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, in 2014-2015, due to food counter-sanctions, food prices in Russia increased by almost a third (31.6%). The jump in prices was especially noticeable in 2015 (the Russian Federation introduced a food embargo in August 2014).

In general, sanctions have significantly undermined the financial solvency of Russians. In particular, this is due to the collapse of the Russian ruble. December 6, 2014 went down in Russian history as Black Tuesday, when the ruble fell from 60 rubles per dollar to almost 80 rubles per dollar. Despite the fact that the Russian currency later somewhat regained this fall, its rate could not return to the level of just over 30 rubles per dollar, which was a year earlier, and Bloomberg called the Russian ruble the worst currency of 2014. Today, about 60 Russian rubles are given for the American dollar.

Due to the decline in real incomes, Russians have become less likely to travel abroad. According to official data, the tourist flow from the Russian Federation in 2015 decreased by almost 20%. In 2016, it also fell, but more slowly - by 8%.

However, travel, especially abroad, is not a basic human need. But there are big problems with the latter in Russia. According to a study by the Russian Center for Economic and Political Reforms, families in the Russian Federation spend 70-100% of their salary budget on essentials. At the same time, according to the RANEPA Institute for Social Forecasting, about a third of all Russians are at risk of falling into poverty.

Sanctions hit by sector

One of the consequences of the sanctions is the inability of the Russian Federation to use the technologies it needs. Such restrictions are experienced by all spheres, but they are especially noticeable for the military-industrial complex. The Russian military-industrial complex is highly dependent on components that were previously purchased from Ukrainian manufacturers. For aviation, for example, these are products of the Motor Sich company (Zaporozhye), which produces engines for airplanes and helicopters. In the space sector, the Russian Federation for many years was tied to launch vehicles and missile systems developed by Yuzhnoye Design Bureau (Dnepr). Due to the cessation of supplies of Ukrainian gas turbine units from the Zorya-Mashproekt enterprise (Nikolaev), Russia cannot complete the construction of a number of ships for its navy. As a result, the ships will be sold to India, which will independently purchase the necessary propulsion systems.

In order to circumvent sanctions, the Russian leadership often resorts to deceit, as happened with the scandal around the Siemens turbines in Crimea.

Another important effect of the sanctions is to limit the access of Russian business to the so-called "cheap" money in Western banks. If in 2013 Russia attracted $46.4 billion on the Eurobond market, then in 2015 this figure decreased by almost 10 times - to about $5 billion. cost of capital (weighted average cost of capital). “With the imposition of sanctions, with the flight of investment capital, with an increase in risks, the weighted average cost of capital increases several times, respectively, it becomes more and more difficult for companies to remain profitable. What we see now in Russia is a catastrophic decline in profitability, a catastrophic decline in the share of profitable companies, ”the expert noted.

Despite the obvious effect of the sanctions on the Russian economy with a minus sign, the figures show that recently their impact has somewhat weakened. This indicates that Russia was able to adapt to the sanctions, according to Russian economist Dmitry Nekrasov. “Especially at the first stage in 2014, when there was an outflow of capital of about $150-160 billion, the imposition of sanctions had a very strong impact on the Russian economy. In the medium term, the impact of sanctions is still there, but there is no need to talk about some terrible things. It is clear that this holds back economic growth, but in general, capital outflows have also been greatly reduced, and many companies have learned to circumvent all these sanctions, ”the expert said in a commentary to Apostrophe, adding that in the long term,“ sanctions will greatly undermine opportunities for economic growth in Russia.

If the US accepts a new sanctions package, the implementation of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project will be in jeopardy - serious companies simply will not risk participating in it.

In addition, new sanctions will complicate the already tight borrowing conditions for Russian companies and banks. And this will contribute to the further deterioration of the economic situation in the Russian Federation.

Slava Rabinovich predicts that maintaining the sanctions regime will be a colossal blow to the Russian banking system. According to him, several systemically important banks have provided loans to a significant part of the Russian economy, and Sberbank accounts for lending to about half of the entire economy of the Russian Federation.

“If the entire Russian economy begins to collapse in the form of massive bankruptcies of companies, this will be followed by the collapse of the banking system,” the expert said. According to him, attempts to save systemically important banks will cause the need to start issuing, which "will lead to the collapse of the ruble, which will lead, in turn, to the termination of the ruble as a unit of account in international trade, which will lead to the collapse of imports."

“What we are seeing is nothing but slow motion footage of a train wreck. They can only slow down or speed up, but the train crash will happen absolutely for sure, ”Rabinovich summed up.

The materials of InoSMI contain only assessments of foreign media and do not reflect the position of the editors of InoSMI.

All comments

• 08:20 26.07.2017 | 32

  ALICE

  and dream and dream, purely Ukrainians

• 11:17 26.07.2017 | 3

  Greycat

  purely Ukrainians ------- rotten... How can one not remember where the saying about the neighbor's cow came from.

• 13:44 26.07.2017 | 0

  conservative reactionary

  ALICE, "New sanctions against Russia: the collapse will happen absolutely" - but let's take them at their word. Let's just see what happens in six months or a year. But I will say one thing - when Ukraine is covered with a copper basin, I will not cry and I will not transfer money. And I will not accept refugees from among the "brotherly people".

• 16:39 27.07.2017 | 0

  gennadiy21

  A conservative reactionary, it would be wise to confine oneself to the glory of Rabinovich and Co.

• 14:14 26.07.2017 | 0

  trick

  ALICE, they think it didn't work out the first time, but it certainly didn't work the second time. History teaches fools nothing.

• 08:25 26.07.2017 | 18

  alchi

• 16:32 26.07.2017 | 0

  darsan7796

  alchi, "According to Slava Rabinovich" Yes, this is Slavik! Do you know beer on Sukharevka? So he is there! On the same Friday we will ask an asshole for the market!

• 22:32 26.07.2017 | 1

  Marquis Aamon

  alchi, wake up. As far back as 1811, such forecasts were printed in Paris itself!

• 08:26 26.07.2017 | 9

  Tovlacherov

  How scary to live

• 05:56 27.07.2017 | 0

  samsonoff.aleksei2012

  Tovlacherov, don't say... :-)

• 08:26 26.07.2017 | 3

  g.goworowa

  Close-minded ... it won't make it any easier for you. Russia stood, stands and will stand

• 08:30 26.07.2017 | -4

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  Stupid bastards! Well, where are the sanctions? Some sanctions of laughter! Our economy is in a state of flux for two other painful reasons: 1) Oil-breadwinner and gas-father are now being sold at simply ridiculous prices. And for the World Energy Power, it's simply indecent. 2) For the last 15 years, our Leader has been steering the country's economy personally, in manual mode, about which earlier (well, when oil was for a hundred and there were enough buns for everyone) he liked to brag to the journalistic brethren on occasion with a slight squint. Well, that’s how I got on the hike ... Hmm ... Or maybe I'm wrong, was that how it was intended? After all, on the other hand, everything is not so bad, after all, the Kremlin found another 7 lard dollars in 2017 to invest in the US economy? By the way, in total, in this way we support the economy of "our partner" (who sometimes covers us with sanctions, sometimes compares us with Ebola) by more than a hundred lard bucks. So everything is smooth! There is no money! True, against this background, it is not clear why the Kremlin has been confiscating the pension savings of citizens for the fourth year again from the Pension Fund to the budget? But maybe just overlooked? In the end, we are now living at the break of two great eras of the current political regime, when the era of the Genius of the wives of the modest and faithful companions of the Leader is being replaced by the era of the Brilliant sons of the modest and faithful companions of the Leader. Apparently, the Russian aristocracy is being born again! I am sure that the living wage of ten thousand rubles will soon be raised! Perhaps even immediately as much as 500 rubles! The country is rich! World power! Stupid bastards don't run...

• 08:43 26.07.2017 | -2

  electroyandex

  Trotsky was not on the moon, About wives and children, you repeat yourself, you curse, or you have no wife or children.

• 08:55 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  electroyandex, I emphasize. Nothing more. As Karla Radek once said, we live in interesting times, comrades! From a historical point of view, it's very entertaining! No kidding. electroyandex, and about my personal life, let me assure you in the most honest way, I'm fine! By the way, there is good news: pensions have been raised by as much as two hundred rubles! So there is reason for optimism!

• 15:56 26.07.2017 | 0

  tues39

  electroyandex, please name the oil prices before 2005? just - for our general education to know)))

• 08:53 26.07.2017 | 1

  U-2

  Trotsky was not on the moon, you can learn more about the confiscation of the pension savings of the population. Tell us which categories of pensioners and their pensions have ALREADY(!!) suffered from this. Or why and who will suffer in the future. Do you even know the topic you're talking about? Do you remember the pensions that were before the GDP?

• 09:12 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  U-2, I have already said before, this political regime will someday be written about: it took him ten years to get Russia out of the 90s, and then in another ten years this regime brought Russia back to the 90s again. Dear, the current withdrawals from the FIU will backfire in twenty years. Apparently, therefore, mindful of the parable of the padishah and the donkey, the current government so freely and swindles the pension contributions of citizens to the budget, where they are simply eaten away. By the way, I have never heard the Kremlin's plans to return to the FIU the money seized in previous years in the budget. Or have you heard about it? Accumulative deductions of citizens of the Russian Federation are one of the largest inflows of funds to the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation (except for pensions of security officials). From the amount of money in the PFR, the average pension of a Russian is formed (I explain in a simplified way). Accordingly, if there is a pool from which water leaves through a pipe, and another pipe (through which water enters the pool) is blocked, then the hole in the PFR will only grow. And every year more and more. And given our demographics and the fact that, on average, our population is aging (the share of pensioners for every working citizen is constantly growing). In a word, there is nothing to be surprised why in Russia the average pension (I do not take pensions of officials and judges) is an order of magnitude less than in the same Serbia and Poland. And it's not strange. Given the attitude of our government to the FIU, this is natural. I remember that even Yarovaya, on her Super Law, offered to shy away from the Pension Fund the required lards for its implementation. True, here the power of conscience was enough, this nonsense is not to pull the future pensions of Russians. The way out, it seems, was found simpler, the costs of the Yarovaya mega-law will be hung on the shoulders of citizens, making them into the tariffs for telephone calls and Internet charges. And what? Our people are rich, and will pull it out.

• 09:30 26.07.2017 | 3

  electroyandex

  Trotsky was not on the moon. Everyone understands perfectly well about the situation in the country, since there is enough information. Therefore, your flooding with a nightingale about "how bad everything is" is perceived as an annoying fly. It's one thing if this is a way to make money, it's another to show how smart and dissatisfied you are .

• 10:08 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

• 09:33 26.07.2017 | 2

  U-2

  Trotsky was not on the moon, Hollow Breh! Not a single pension ruble has been taken from anyone's pension. Not today, not yesterday. There is a huge deficit in the pension fund, so it is physically impossible to steal from there. Shamefully merged with the question of the size of pensions before Putin. You are trying to hide the gaping emptiness with verbosity ... sadness ... Personal request, change your nickname and profile picture. According to the Soviet habit, I treat Trotsky negatively, but fairly, and you show inhuman lawlessness towards him.

• 11:00 26.07.2017 | 0

  connecting rod

  U-2, right now, liberals on every talk show remember grandmothers, but in the 90s, under EBN, when pensions and salaries were delayed and not paid for half a year or more, everyone, including the West, applauded us ...

• 11:11 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  Shamefully merged with the question of the size of pensions before Putin .... U-2, no, it did not merge. I will tell you more, if we compare pensions under GDP and under Ivan the Terrible, then the gain in favor of GDP will be even greater. Again, do you think that if under Yeltsin gas and oil were under a hundred, Yeltsin would not have paid a good pension to the old people? Yes, GDP raised something, but ... Inflation and rising prices VERY quickly eat up this difference between Yeltsin's and vvpeshnoy pensions. ..There is a huge deficit in the pension fund... That's right, DEFICIENCY! And instead of covering this deficit, this hole is being widened even more, depriving the PFR of the main source of inflow of money, namely, withdrawing the pension savings of citizens to the budget. By the way, you are aware that until 2013 the withdrawal of money from the FIU was actually illegal. Under this case, even a special law, indistinct and incomprehensible, was already adopted at a run, apparently, it was completely shut down. ... Trotsky was one of the Fathers of the Revolution. Personally, you can treat him however you like. But if not for him, then it is far from a fact that the USSR would have taken place at all. And you were never a Soviet person. And I answer for the words - Trotsky has never really been on the moon.

• 11:38 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  U-2, U-2, liberals on every talk show remember grandmothers ... The country was not destroyed by liberals. The country was destroyed by the communists. Which the current priests also unconditionally believed for all 70 years and obediently marched into a brighter future. And in the 90s, the IMF borrowed money so that the people would not die of hunger. And mother oil, together with gas father, cost 20 points. If Yeltsin had had sotochka oil, I'm sure he would also generously hand out high pensions and salaries, maybe he would now be called only the Father of the Nation. Damn the global economy...

• 09:55 26.07.2017 | 1

  cabin boy pacific

  Trotsky was not on the moon, Let's just say you are a useless expert, why show something that is not there.

• 11:13 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  cabin boy Pacific, with pleasure I will listen to your conclusions, dear Great Ykspert! Where is our country going? Where is the current political regime taking her? What are we developing? Democracy? Technocracy? Monarchism? Liberalism? Our prospects in the social sphere, science, on the world stage? I have expressed my opinion and I am sure, to my deep regret, that the current regime is slowly but surely mutating into the Yeltsin regime.

• 09:57 26.07.2017 | 2

  connecting rod

  Trotsky was not on the moon, why do you think that you should increase the cost of living in general, no one owes you anything, if the rogue is your problem, we will again live in subsistence farming, as in the nineties, but nothing good will happen, at least change a hundred times and hang out, the authorities are not smart, it’s us ourselves and any of us, once there, will do the same ... and all the indignation that there is no access to the feeder, that’s all .... there is a huge expanse and everything for us, in the Middle Ages yard .. .

• 11:16 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  rod-shah, well ... Your post, probably, can be framed) Even though it's sad. I will not argue with you. Actually, you state the actual state of affairs in the country.

• 11:57 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  And why do you think that you should increase the cost of living in general .. shatun shah, just one remark .. If the population is generally poor, then you won’t take any taxes or fees from it (even Platonov’s), even for housing and communal services there will be problems. If a person plows, and there is only enough money to survive, then do not expect extra patriotism from such a person (how will he go to fight for the country tomorrow if the family barely makes ends meet at home). And in general, there are a lot of minuses if the population in the country is mostly poor. It was already like that. under Nicholas II. And then something somehow suddenly took and blazed. Bach and all. He took the people and believed the marginal radical Lenin.

• 10:35 26.07.2017 | 1

  Mercury

  Trotsky was not on the moon, you won’t be able to control the entrance, why are you pretending to be smart? Your reasoning - sucking from the fingers in an attempt to console yourself. However, you can dump in a flourishing khokhlopopiya, if not already there.

• 11:34 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  Merkuriy, That's the whole trouble, that there is even nothing to console yourself with. The picture of the immediate prospects and the future of our country emerges natural and well-deserved. And yes, I never managed the entrance)) Well, maybe it will happen again, who knows) My reasoning is the most ordinary facts. I don't understand why you are so mad at them? By the way, they are really our little brothers. We are one people. Very similar. For they themselves are never to blame for anything (neither we nor Ukrainians). For we (like the Ukrainians) are God's chosen people and we have our own special path (no one really knows which one, neither we nor the Ukrainians). The State Department is always to blame for all our troubles (among Ukrainians, "curse Muscovites"). In general, our bosses are in some kind of mental dependence on Kiev (no matter how ridiculous it may sound). Examples: Back in the late 90s, Khozly began to put "brilliant talents" (usually the children of big officials) at the head of their STATE factories - ours torn this thing up somewhere in the middle of the 2000s. We know the result of Ukrainian industry, and soon, apparently, we will know the result of our personnel policy at state-owned enterprises (there is no easy oil money now to plug holes from the results of managing state assets by "young talents"). Only the Khozls established the National Guard in their country, and ours, apparently, having studied how the National Guard is able to mercilessly fight the enemies of the state, they immediately create the National Guard in the Russian Federation. True, we went even further - in our country, even in "certain cases", army units will be subordinated to the National Guards. (this, by the way, was not under the Republic of Ingushetia, nor under the USSR). Only Ukrainians began to fight the Internet (bans on social networks, etc.), I look, and ours are quickly following up ... In a word, I am already afraid of the initiatives of Poroshenko and the Rada. After all, ours will certainly distort, and even increase)

• 15:29 26.07.2017 | 0

  Mercury

  Trotsky was not on the moon, your reasoning is not facts, because you are talking about the future, trying to find analogies in different cases (comparing the National Guard of Ukraine and Russia in particular), trying to draw conclusions from your own reasoning. And yes, you don’t blame yourself, you found the culprit in Putin (yes, yes, he personally runs everything, I haven’t read it, but I condemn it). Unlike you, I am not looking for the guilty, the problems of Russia are the problems of all its inhabitants, from the janitor to the president. And you can keep looking for demons and assume that these are facts. PS Peter the Great, in an attempt to change the country, began with its mentality.

• 16:16 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  Your reasoning is not facts, because you are talking about the future, trying to find analogies in different cases ... Merkuriy, for the last almost 18 years the country has been following the course destined by the GDP, its faithful associates, its ruling party. And therefore, to ask the janitor on a par with the Leader that we again wandered into a dead end, I consider it wrong. I'm not looking for someone to blame. And I give an assessment of the 18-year-old political regime of the GDP. I give an assessment based on my own conclusions (which, by the way, is hardly interesting to GDP itself) and the reality that I see before my eyes every day. In other words, I express my opinion about what is happening in the country. By the way, my right, if anything ... And my opinion is this: I am against the GDP, because I think that its domestic policy is erroneous and dangerous for Russia, the political course of the GDP is disastrous for Russia. In parallel, so precisely, I compare the processes that are taking place in our country with those processes that are taking place in a neighboring country. And you must admit that there is something in common in these processes. And, the guilty, dear, in our country the court determines. I repeat my prediction: someday they will write about this political regime that it took him ten years to get Russia out of the 90s, and then in another ten years this regime again returned Russia to the 90s. And who will we ask for this, for the result of many years of rule, (most likely, by the way, we won’t ask anyone, someone will die by that time, and someone will go to their dachas near Paris or in Bali) with GDP, with a janitor, with a prime minister, with bikers, with Edra deputies or teachers with doctors, this is another matter.

• 11:38 26.07.2017 | 2

  cabin boy pacific

  Trotsky was not on the moon, I am not Ykspert, I have been living in this country for more than one or even four decades, and I see how things are going with us. It is hard, with effort, but they are going, for the better, and as far as the economy is concerned, this is the government, not the president.

• 11:51 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  the cabin boy is Pacific, and as for the economy, the government, not the president, is doing this ... Yes, well))) I don’t remember how many times over the past 15 years (well, while it was raining from petrodollars, now, yes, he doesn’t like about remember this) our Leader liked to emphasize that he steers the country manually, delves into all economic decisions ... This is like his pearls about the Great Energy Power (again, while oil was for a hundred). And then some kind of crap turns out, while the country is on the rise, the loot from the Pipe flows like a river, we are a Great Energy Power - is it all thanks to the Leader? And how they sank, then it's all Lame Misha's fault, right? Well, well)) ... It's hard, with effort, but things are going for the better ... Believe me, I really, really, really hope that it is YOU who are right, and not me. But nobody canceled the laws of economics and political science. And 2x2=4. And therefore ... I am extremely pessimistic about the course that the current political regime leads our country.

• 11:54 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon, 1. precisely because the prices are ridiculous and indecent, all trash climbed into this market with their shales? 2. about taxiing the economy personally by the Leader and bragging, proofs would not hurt.

• 12:13 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  Sn, heh))) And what about the competition, no? In the same way, if every trash didn’t get into the market with their processors and LCD monitors, then the traders of calculators and typewriters would still earn big money)) And then the trash showered the market with laptops) And the prices for calculators and typewriters became ridiculous .. Again and earlier, study the oil market in the 19th and 20th century, oil prices have always been sinusoidal (depending on fluctuations in the world economy), one decade they hit the ceiling, the next decade they fall below the plinth. World economy, fuck her mother) Eh, if oil-breadwinner ALWAYS (constant) cost two hundred dollars per barrel, no question, our Leader, yes, would go down in history as the Great OZ. But... Damn reality always destroys aspirations and dreams. Before GDP, Brezhnev can be called a darling of oil)) Of course, oil was not worth a hundred at that time. But then the dollar itself was worth more. I'm not even going to try to throw off the proofs. It happened a great many times. The image of GDP has always been built on this, they say, he personally does not sleep at night, he delves into everything, and especially into ECONOMIC DECISIONS. And it is precisely his policy, his decisions that are implemented by the faithful and obedient government and the no less faithful and obedient ruling party. When he beat his heels in the chest, exclaiming "Yes, I am a slave in the galleys." And now he, like, is out of business or what?) Heh ... It will be a beautiful bend. Gebyata-gebyata, I was not aware, these are all liberals and the state department, please understand and forgive? Heh ... The most offensive, it would be better if he really worked out his two terms and would have left. But no, you see, he turned into the next Savior of Russia and the Raiser of the country from the knees. In September, by the way, Brezhnev will beat Brezhnev's record for taxiing the country)

• 12:07 26.07.2017 | 1

  cabin boy pacific

  Trotsky was not on the moon. You know, by the nature of my work I often go to the store (not for groceries, my wife does this), I buy either drills, or hammer drills, or some other technical rubbish, and noticed that in recent years a lot of Russian production has appeared. Someone scolds for poor quality, someone praises, anything can happen, the main thing is that it appeared, the conclusion: The economy lives, badly, poorly, but lives, I hope it will flourish. And if instead of work we squeal "atu rob" I think you don't need to say what will happen. In our country, only in a hundred years, the country fell apart 2 times, and only thanks to people like our President, it did not fall apart completely. By the way, you respected Trotsky also had a hand in gathering the country.

• 12:26 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  cabin boy Pacific, I repeat, believe me, I really, really, really hope that it is YOU who are right, and not me. Nobody says that nothing has been done with GDP. A lot has been done. The trouble is that with the GDP, a lot of things have also been done (missed) (in my opinion), which, in the overall result, I'm afraid, will multiply everything good by zero. Namely: rampant corruption, unbelted officials, cop lawlessness (or when a polkan finds 9 lard in his sister’s hut, is this not lawlessness?), Some kind of feudal personnel policy (sorry, when a person at 33 years old doesn’t recognize either a belmez or a grocer in aircraft construction to steer the largest aviation enterprise? Who appointed Vasiliev in the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation? and I can give many, many such examples), the elite, who have gone crazy from their own impunity. hmm ... Yes, something is being done somewhere pointwise (it seems that it is purely for show). Who is caught, planted. But there is no systematic approach. Again, well, GDP will sit still in the Kremlin for 15 years. And then how? Again, from the "near lads" the new conditional "Khrushchev" with the new conditional "Beria" will share power, again almost putting the country (as the real Khrushchev and Beria did) to the brink of civil war? The trouble is when there are no political traditions in the country. I am a liberal. I am a technocrat. Maybe that's my problem. Maybe my worldview is just different from yours. And therefore, I am extremely pessimistic about the course of the current political regime.

• 12:32 26.07.2017 | 0

  cabin boy pacific

  Trotsky was not on the moon, I'm sorry, but you write what happened, I know that, but can you write what needs to be done? Here is such a stupid little question (eternal) WHAT TO DO?

• 13:13 26.07.2017 | 0

  Trotsky was not on the moon

  cabin boy Pacific, this is the question Herr Chernyshevsky in the novel "What to do"? asked as far back as 1862! Not a damn thing has changed in a hundred and fifty years, right? Honestly, I would start with corruption. I mean, not only bribes and kickbacks (this, by the way, is still tolerable), but more of a really feudal personnel policy and clan system. By the way, there is something to learn from our Western partners and from China, for example. And in the USSR, again, there were many good developments on this topic. In my opinion, it is corruption that is the most terrible enemy of the country (worse than the state department), that's for sure. The most annoying thing is that in many countries this has been and is being done (of course, corruption cannot be completely eradicated, but it can actually be reduced). Technically, I won’t describe how to do this, all this was invented before us, all this can be implemented, if there is political will. Introduce the political principle of the change of power. Just like in China. Every ten years, the top leadership must change. So that the Evonian comrades-in-arms do not grow too close to their high chairs. Has the Chinese government found the strength to go for it? And it's happening. Let members of the same party come to power, but still these are new people, which means that the former owners of the country will beware of grabbing too much (tomorrow the new owners may ask for old deeds). This is where you should start. Then the time will come for the next reforms. It's not worth it to unpack everything.

Volatility in the markets "both with the next wave of US sanctions rhetoric against Russia, and with the unstable situation in emerging markets." He assured that the economy has become more stable in recent years, and the government and the Central Bank "have all the necessary tools to ensure financial stability."

Why did the fall stop?

The dynamics of exchange rates stabilized, as “the first emotions subsided, the main outflow of non-residents from OFZ ended, and Brent oil stopped at a price just above $72 per barrel,” says BCS Premier investment strategist Alexander Bakhtin. The pressure on the ruble “should gradually subside,” he predicts: “It is possible that by the end of the week the dollar may correct downward and reach 63-64.5 rubles.”

Stabilization of the exchange rate is about 66 rubles. not surprising, since the new sanctions look less painful than senators Menendez and Graham, says Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank. “We see the trading range for the upcoming week at the levels of 64.25-67.50 rubles. per dollar,” she said in the review.

The ruble yesterday "overreacted" to the bill of the US senators, says Tatyana Evdokimova, an economist at Nordea Bank. She emphasizes that Senator Graham, the initiator of the bill to strengthen anti-Russian sanctions, introduced 13 bills in 2017, of which only one became law.

What are the new sanctions?

The State Department announced on August 8 that the US administration had concluded that Russia was involved in the use of a poisonous chemical agent in the assassination attempt on Sergei and Yulia Skripal in March of this year. Under the Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991, the President of the United States is required to impose sanctions on a country that, according to the American government, has used chemical weapons prohibited by international conventions.

The law provides for two rounds of such sanctions, and the first will come into force on August 22. An additional round of sanctions could be adopted in 90 days if Russia does not meet certain conditions (its government must provide guarantees not to use chemical or biological weapons in the future, must be ready to allow international inspectors to its facilities).

Russia has become only the third country against which US sanctions are applied under this law in 27 years. The first was Syria in 2013, the second was North Korea in 2018 (the US government concluded that the DPRK was involved in the assassination of the half-brother of the North Korean leader in Malaysia in 2017 using the VX nerve agent).

The fact that the Trump administration applied the anti-chemical weapons law to Russia is of great political importance, but the economic consequences of these sanctions will most likely be purely symbolic. The mandatory set of sanctions, which will come into effect on August 22, includes halting United States foreign aid to Russia, halting arms supplies and funding for arms purchases, refusing U.S. government loans, and banning the export of goods and technologies to Russia that are “nationally sensitive.” security" USA.

The export of American weapons to Russia is already prohibited, and the United States does not provide Russia with state loans (on the contrary, Russia was until recently). Bilateral trade could suffer some losses - shipments worth "several hundred million dollars" (a year) could be affected, a State Department spokesman said at a briefing. But the US government has already provided for several exceptions that are allowed by the 1991 law, and therefore the restrictions will be much softer.

What exceptions did the State Department promise?

First, the United States will continue to provide "foreign assistance to Russia and its people" (including humanitarian aid, assistance in the development of human capital), the representative of the State Department said. Secondly, sanctions prohibiting the export of sensitive goods will not affect space cooperation between Russia and the United States. In addition, goods and technologies necessary for the safety of commercial passenger aviation will be removed from the new sanctions. Finally, US export licenses for sensitive products will continue to be issued on a case-by-case basis if the end user is a "pure commercial consumer" for civilian use only.

Now deliveries to Russia of American goods and technologies that are sensitive from the point of view of national security (this is a long list, including, for example, aeroderivative gas turbines, electronic devices and components, integrated circuits, measuring and calibration equipment, various materials, etc.), are only possible with an export license from the US Department of Commerce. These licenses are already issued with difficulty. Now, as a State Department spokesman said at a briefing, such licenses will be automatically denied if the end recipient of sensitive products is an organization associated with the Russian state. According to a State Department spokesman, potentially such consumers in Russia could lose "hundreds of millions of dollars" in future supplies.

In 2016 (latest available statistics), the US Department of Commerce reviewed 502 applications for export/re-export of goods to Russia for a total of $4.3 billion, of which 208 applications were approved for $2.7 billion.

What sanctions threaten Russia in 90 days?

Additional sanctions against Russia could be imposed three months later if the Russian government does not agree to provide guarantees against the use of chemical weapons. Considering that Russia does not consider itself involved in the poisoning of the Skripals, the scenario in which Russia agrees to give the United States some kind of guarantee looks incredible.

The second set of sanctions consists of six possible measures, of which the President of the United States must choose at least three. Of these, two measures are symbolic and have no practical significance for Russia (blocking international financial assistance and banning American banks from providing loans to the Russian authorities), one diplomatic (lowering the status of bilateral diplomatic relations) and the other three with potentially serious consequences for the economy and business, but they may not be applied (since three out of six measures are enough). These are a complete ban on the export of goods from the United States (except for food and agricultural products), a complete ban on imports to the United States and a ban on air communication with the United States for state-owned air carriers (in the case of Russia, this is Aeroflot). But the United States does not intend to ban Aeroflot flights, already.

At first, Aeroflot quotes suffered greatly: on Thursday morning they fell from 111.9 to 102.8 rubles, and at the minimum (at 10:29 Moscow time) their price was 98.8 rubles. (minus 12%). Then the quotes of the air carrier won back the fall - at 17:11 Moscow time, one share of Aeroflot costs only 0.6% cheaper than the day before.

Sanctions imposed under the Chemical Weapons Act are valid for at least a year and can be lifted by the President of the United States if the state against which they are imposed provides guarantees for the further non-use of chemical weapons, allows international inspectors, and also compensates for the damage suffered by victims of the use of chemical weapons.

This week, the list of the richest people on the planet has changed dramatically - Forbes tracked the losses of Russian oligarchs after the introduction.

Every hour, the "whales" lost millions of dollars, and the whole world was watching. It all started with fluctuations in the exchange rate: since April 9, the assets of the top 50 Russian businessmen in total have fallen in price by more than $11 billion.

Reason for panic

As is known, preliminary economic restrictions did not have any special consequences for the Russian Federation: the economy there was already “limping”, and those close to the Kremlin did not live in poverty. However, now the situation is beneficial to Ukraine, because the West is gradually beginning to fulfill its promises regarding support and opposition to the aggressor at the international level.

Russian economists, on the contrary, made positive forecasts a few days ago: S&P upgraded the country's credit rating to investment grade, but it turned out that America was simply in no hurry to make key decisions. Previously, it was only about personal sanctions or bans for individual companies, while now it has hit the largest stock players and public figures.

No sane foreigner will cooperate at his own risk with firms that are on the "Kremlin list".

List of "victims" and mirror actions of the Kremlin

In addition to Oleg Deripaska and a group of his once very successful companies, the sanctions affected such shareholders as Safmar, Rusal, Mechel, Polyus, Sberbank - not the last on the Russian market. True, only until recently.

For example, the owner of the Renova company, Viktor Vekselberg, rounded out the top five in the loss anti-rating (minus $967 million), although his company is not public. In Russia, he was engaged in the supply of aluminum to the American company Boeing. Probably, the business will have to put an end to it.

The Russian Foreign Ministry can respond to the West, but the problem is that the United States simply will not feel pressure on itself. Especially against the backdrop of the expulsion of diplomats, as more than one country in the world did after the poisoning of former GRU intelligence officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia.

True, there are branches of subsidiaries of American companies in Russia, but mostly Russians work there. Of course, they can be closed, but this will not change the situation.

Real Consequences

So the Russian ruble fell only in 2014. But now everything depends on the behavior of foreign investors, who own about a third of federal loan bonds (OFZ). If Western business goes out, the rate will definitely fall down. On April 9, the euro rose from 70 to 74 rubles in a day, while the dollar cost more than 60 rubles. On April 10, the situation remained virtually unchanged, but still remains shaky.

Probably, this is how the current month is defined for the financial and political circles of Russia. Gloomy tones were added most of all by the upcoming doublet of new anti-Russian sanctions, now from the US State Department. Recall that a month earlier, similar actions, mainly against the leadership of our country, were announced by the United States Congress.

The first package of state departmental sanctions, the grounds for which, apart from the Skripal case, were not found in the States, it is planned to be introduced after August 20. It restricts the supply of electronic products to Russia, which, according to the sanctioners, can also be used in the defense industry.

The second part will be introduced if Moscow does not provide guarantees of the non-use of biological and chemical weapons, and also allows the UN and other international organizations to conduct checks on the territory of the country. In other words, open the doors of secret military factories. Of course, this will not happen, which means that Aeroflot will have problems, up to a ban on flights to the United States. In addition, diplomatic relations between the countries will actually be severed. But the most unpleasant thing for our financial system, which is actually built around the dollar, is that Russian state-owned banks can be completely cut off from the international system of dollar trading and lending, including settlements on Russian government obligations.

Shock and offshore

The strongest shock in the Russian elites, which their overseas patrons provoked with a mere promise to block their ability to withdraw money from Russia and invest it in Western jurisdictions, can be seen in the reaction of the highest government officials of the Russian Federation, including the Sunday "calming" speech of the vice- Prime Minister, Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov. He, as usual, read a mantra about the stability of the financial system and the possibility to start selling oil for rubles at any moment. If this is a joke, then this is clearly not the time for it. Recall that only the announcement of new sanctions brought down the ruble, and its fall, apparently, does not stop.

This is probably why the government prepared Russian offshore companies on the Russky Islands in Primorye and Oktyabrsky Islands in the Kaliningrad Region so hastily. Now, large businesses can, by registering with them, save on taxes and mandatory foreign exchange deductions, while the population is forced to tighten their belts, increase VAT (they say, by two percent, but 2 out of 18 is 11 percent; by the way, the same with utility tariffs) and much more, which we have repeatedly written about.

Against Russia

Yes, the country's financial system has demonstrated resilience throughout the entire period of Western sanctions since 2014. Because they didn't touch her directly. Yes, and our state-owned banks have existed quite comfortably all this time, actively engaging in financial speculation, including in the US stock market. Sberbank, by the way, did not begin to work directly in Crimea, fearing that it would lose its position in the United States due to secondary sanctions. Now everything can change. And the worst thing for business circles will happen - the inability to make payments in foreign currency through correspondent accounts of domestic banks.

In fact, the American establishment, having actually given a damn about President Trump, has come out in a consolidated manner against Russia. Whether it was the result of the Helsinki meeting between the two presidents or the painful Russian-Iranian cooperation for Israel against the backdrop of success in Syria, one thing is clear: the sanctions are only a fragment of a general plan to destabilize the situation in Russia, which the financial system cut off from the dollar should provoke. The former head of the CIA, Michael Morell, said that this is exactly what the new economic sanctions of the US Congress are designed for.

Who will we save?

It is clear that our banks will require the attention of the state, first of all, to themselves as the basis of financial stability, and there is no doubt that financial policy will be aimed at saving banks, and not the real sector of the country's economy.

It should be noted that the government took measures to stabilize the banking sector: it created its own payment system MIR, an analogue of the international SWIFT, and the volume of purchases of US treasury bills dropped sharply. What could be the next step in the conditions, as Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev put it, of a full-scale economic war, one can only guess. One of the possible scenarios for the development of events involves limiting the use of the dollar in the Russian Federation and even, as it were, freezing the population's foreign currency accounts in banks, more precisely, their forced-voluntary exchange for domestic rubles. But this, according to analysts of business publications, is possible only in the event of a complete rupture of relations with the United States.

Probably, not only for me, but also for many readers, the question arises: why does America, with its sanctions, primarily hit the liberal financial circles devoted to it in Russia, the corruption of which is precisely the main task of the American policy of planting democracy around the world? Maybe this time the reason for the next US irritation was the fact that there is corruption in Russia, and the elite created with American money does not fulfill the tasks set - it does not destabilize the situation, the regime does not weaken, and even begins to interfere in world markets. So we started on a new one. Whether our financial system will withstand this blow, time and the dollar will show. But for some reason it seems that again at our expense. And what do you think?

Sanctions were imposed on Russia two years ago. It didn't scare anyone back then. Remember, all those jokes about "Don't make my Iskanders laugh." But as time has shown, almost everyone has felt the consequences of the sanctions.

The first package of anti-Russian sanctions was introduced in mid-March 2014, when Crimea actually became part of Russia. In April and May, because of the war in eastern Ukraine, the West imposed a second round of sanctions. The third was introduced in June after the Boeing crash in the Donetsk region. The list of sanctions is huge, they mainly concern trade and visa restrictions, the refusal of civil, economic and military cooperation, and the cessation of funding for Russian organizations.

Russian presidential adviser Sergei Glazyev recently said that Russia's losses from Western sanctions over two years were estimated at $250 billion. This is 17.250 trillion rubles - 2 trillion rubles more than the all-Russian budget for 2015.

These are the main, but few, consequences that two years of sanctions and the crisis that followed them turned out to have for ordinary Russians.

EMPLOYMENT

Since the fall of 2014, employers have practically stopped looking for new employees and stopped increasing salaries. Workers began to hold on tighter to their jobs. In September of this year, the average unemployment rate in the country was 4.9%.

At the beginning of 2015, Rosstat already counted 5.5% of the unemployed (4.2 million people). And at the end of 2015 there were 5.8% (4.4 million people). So far, more than 2,200 businesses have reported that they have suspended, part-time or indefinitely furloughed employees. In total, in 2015, approximately 633.3 thousand people were laid off.

In the same 2015, FOM specialists recorded an increase in protest activity at industrial enterprises - it amounted to 45%. In six months of 2015, 189 labor protests took place at Russian enterprises.

Interestingly, there were no cuts in the oil and gas sector. In Lukoil, for example, they say that there is no reason to reduce the number of people employed in mining, processing and trading. On the contrary, they have a growing number of drilling crews. There were many cuts in small and medium-sized businesses, most of them occurred at the beginning of 2015. And by the end of 2015, they calculated where they were most laid off: in the Moscow region - up to 45% of employees, in Moscow - 30%, in the Yaroslavl region - 20%. Currently, 631,000 people are at risk of being fired.

It is important to understand here that these are official statistics, the real state of affairs is much worse.

SALARY

In 2014, the average monthly nominal salary in Russia was 32,500 rubles. In 2015, it grew to almost 34,000 rubles. The only problem is that due to inflation and the depreciation of the ruble, its purchasing power has decreased. If in 2014 it was 101.2% of the average monthly salary of the previous year (i.e. increased by 1.2%), then in 2015 it amounted to 90.7% (i.e. fell by almost 10%).

The biggest drop in the purchasing power of wages occurred in May 2014. Compared to May 2013, it amounted to 14%. The last time this happened was in 1998.

BUYING BEHAVIOR

With the imposition of sanctions and the start of a rapid rise in inflation, Russians began to spend more on food. If in developed countries people spend 12-18% of their income on food, then in our country it is 46%. At the same time, Russians have begun to become more self-employed and grow their own vegetables and fruits. In 2014, there were 39% of such people, and in 2015 there were much more of them - 46%.

Over the past year, people have begun to spend less on household chemicals: they now buy soaps, powders and shampoos from cheaper brands. Sales of white and yellow cheeses fell by 8%, but cheap sausage cheese became more popular by 24%, processed cheese - by 10%. They began to buy less meat, fish and seafood, but cereals, pasta, flour and sugar began to be in great demand. Also over the past year, trade in sales has grown by 39%.

In recent months, people have been trying not to spend their salaries, not to make large purchases, not to borrow money. Many more take savings from banks.

PRICES

With the depreciation of the ruble in Russia, food prices began to rise rapidly. Over the past two years, the inflation rate has been 24.27%, but prices for some products have risen a lot. For example, from August 2014 to August 2015, cod fillets have risen in price by 20–100% (depending on the store).

Milk went up by 10-20%, chicken by 5-15%, pork by 10-15%, sausages by 10-50%. Prices for vegetables rose sharply: cabbage went up by 13%, beets by 10-25%, carrots by 10%, bell peppers by 40-70%. It is the same with fruits: apples have become more expensive by 25–40%, bananas by 17–27%, oranges by 20–80%.

SAVING

At the end of 2015, NAFI conducted another survey. Then 48% of people said that inflation had damaged the family budget, but had no effect on nutrition. Another 37% reported that the rise in prices had a significant impact on them and they are forced to limit themselves in spending on food.

48% of Russians with the advent of the crisis refused to leave, 39% save on clothes and shoes, 38% - on visiting movies and restaurants. 23% refrain from receiving guests and relatives, 22% - from treatment, 20% - from buying the necessary food.

POVERTY

Conducting its research, VTsIOM divided all Russians into three groups:
- prosperous people who still do not feel the consequences of the crisis;
- Struggling people who have noticed that it has become worse, but are coping with trouble;
- suffering people who experience all the hardships of the crisis and can not fight it.
In November 2014, the suffering group was 16% of the adult population. By January 2015, it had increased dramatically to 47%. In October 2015, it was already 60%.

In 2013, 9% of the population (12.5 million people) had an income below the subsistence level. In 2014, they were already 14% (19.8 million), and in 2016 - 16% (about 23 million). The reasons for such rapid growth are high inflation: if in 2014 it was possible to live on 7,688 rubles, then a year later, 9,662 rubles were required.

Experts say that the bulk of the poor is the adult working-age population. Such a paradox happened due to the fact that work with low wages is very common in Russia. In order for a person to go beyond the poverty line, he must receive a salary equal to 1.5 living wages - about 15 thousand rubles. But according to statistics, about a quarter of working Russians earn less than this amount. The minimum wage in Russia is 5,965 rubles, that is, not 1.5 times more, but almost half the subsistence level.

RUBLE WEAKENING

It began in 2014 after the fall in oil prices and the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions. If on January 1, 2014 the US dollar exchange rate was 32.66 rubles, and the euro - 45.06, then from January to March 2014 the ruble weakened by 14.9%: the dollar cost more than 37 rubles, and the euro rose above 51 rubles. These were the highest figures since the 2009 crisis.

The fall of the ruble continued, and on December 15 there was a sharp collapse: the rates amounted to 64.45 and 78.87 rubles per dollar and euro. The day was dubbed "Black Monday" by the media. The next day, on Tuesday, December 16, the ruble fell even more: the dollar and euro rates reached 79 and 98 rubles. This day was called "Black Tuesday". At the end of 2014, the ruble, according to Bloomberg, became the worst currency of the year.

In 2015, the ruble weakened and strengthened, keeping within the range of 50-70 per dollar and 53-80 per euro. On New Year's Eve, the ruble weakened again, and in January 2016 it updated its minimum values ​​several times since Black Tuesday in December 2014.

MOOD

After the return of Crimea to Russia and the introduction of counter-sanctions, Putin's rating has grown significantly. In August, 57% of those polled were ready to vote for him (if we exclude from the whole mass those who have not decided and who are not going to vote, then 87%). Only 15% of respondents disapproved of Putin's activities. To the question "Is the country moving in the right direction?" An affirmative answer was then given by 64% of the respondents, and a negative one by 22%.

In October 2015, 89.9% of respondents expressed their approval for Putin - this is a record figure for Russia. Such a rise in popular disposition was associated with the start of a military operation in Syria. In January 2016, the confidence rating for the president was at around 85%.

Specialists attribute a slight drop in the president's rating to the complexity of the economic situation. It does not apply specifically to the president, but to all authorities. 55% of Russians do not believe that the government has a plan to save the economy.