Methodology for forecasting income. Budget income planning. Lecture: Planning and forecasting of state budget revenues Methodology for forecasting state and municipal revenues

The Budget Law, being one of the most important laws that determines many parameters of the country's development for the coming year and the medium term, is a legally formalized list of government revenues and expenses. Budget revenues express the economic relations that arise between the state and the subjects of reproduction in the process of forming the country's budget fund. The form of manifestation of these economic relations are various types of payments of enterprises, organizations and the population, and their material embodiment is funds mobilized into the budget fund. With the help of income, the process of forming budget resources is carried out, while expenses mediate the process of their use. Managing budget resources and focusing them on key areas of economic and social development makes it possible to implement financial policies throughout the country.

Planning and forecasting are necessary components of a scientifically based budget process, without which state actions will primarily be in response to changes in the economy and social life. When planning and forecasting are integral stages of the budgeting process, the implementation of government policy becomes more effective, and it becomes possible to consider and evaluate alternative options for achieving economic and social goals.

Federal Law of the Russian Federation dated July 20, 1995 No. 115-FZ “On state forecasting and programs for socio-economic development of the Russian Federation” defines the time frame for planning and forecasting processes. There are three types of forecasting: long-term, medium-term and short-term. Long-term forecasts are developed every five years over a ten-year period. Long-term forecast data is used in developing concepts of socio-economic development, forecasts and programs for the medium term, that is, for a period of three to five years, subject to annual adjustments. Short-term forecasts are prepared for the financial year.

Planning of budget revenues is a complex and multifactorial process of developing the general structure and volumes of budget revenues for the next financial year and the future. The principle diagram of this process is established by the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, which regulates the basis for drawing up draft budgets at all levels of the budget system of the Russian Federation. The Budget Code of the Russian Federation includes the establishment of a specific procedure for the formation of draft budgets in the relevant territory under the jurisdiction of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local self-government bodies. According to the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, the preparation of draft budgets is the exclusive prerogative of the Government of the Russian Federation, the relevant executive authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local governments. Direct work on developing the budget plan is carried out by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, finance committees of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, financial departments of local governments, tax and customs authorities.

The main source of income for budgets of all levels in the Russian Federation is tax revenue from legal entities and individuals; therefore, one of the most important elements of the budget income planning system is tax planning and forecasting. The main task of tax planning is to determine the volume of tax revenues for the short and long term based on forecast calculations of changes in the profitability of enterprises and sectors of the economy. Egorov V.V., Parsadanov G.A. Forecasting the national economy.-M.-2001.

Tax planning as a process of developing economically justified qualitative and quantitative parameters of expected tax revenues to the budget of the Russian Federation combines three stages. The beginning of the procedure is the process of bringing together and studying information about the current tax legislation by the departments involved in drawing up the budget tax revenue plan; standards for deductions from own and regulatory revenues of budgets of other levels of the budget system; expected volumes of financial assistance provided; types and volumes of expenses redistributed between budgets. In addition, the information necessary for drawing up a draft budget includes data on the standards of financial costs for the provision of state or municipal services and the standards of minimum budgetary provision. Authorized departments provide information regarding the socio-economic development of the territory for the reporting period, formulate and justify trends in the development of the economy and social sphere for the planned financial year.

Taking into account the information listed above, the analysis of the balance of financial resources (BFR) of the territory for the current financial year is carried out and the draft balance is adjusted for the planned period. The BFR represents the main sources of funds allocated for the development of production and the implementation of social programs at the disposal of regional authorities and economic entities on its territory. The FFR is based on a comparison of the volume of financial resources of the territory and the directions of their use. The excess of the region's expenditures over the volume of financial resources (and vice versa) determines the deficit (surplus) of the financial balance and requires indication of the sources of covering the deficit. If the financial resources of the territory are insufficient to fulfill obligations to finance the necessary expenses, additional sources of funds are sought. They, in particular, can be additional tax revenues from the budget. If government authorities decide to compensate for the lack of financial resources by changing the volume of tax revenues, there is a need to make appropriate adjustments to the ongoing tax policy and, if necessary, to the system of interbudgetary relations.

Thus, the first stage of state tax planning is the analysis of the initial conditions for developing a plan for tax revenues of the budget, as well as the formation of forecasts for the development of the territory in the future and the compilation of other materials that serve as the basis for calculating tax revenues to the budget.

At the second stage of tax planning, tax policy is adjusted and tax powers and revenue sources are delineated between authorities and management at various levels. Tax policy is part of the general economic policy of the state. It includes a set of government measures aimed at mobilizing income, with the goal of the state performing its functions, and ultimately creating conditions for the economic stabilization of society. As part of the second stage of tax planning, the goals to be achieved by the country's taxation system and methods that make it possible to put these goals into practice are established or changed in accordance with the ongoing economic transformations.

The need to divide tax revenues by level of the budget system is due to differences in the socio-economic conditions of the regions and their economic potential. The purpose of tax regulation of territorial budget revenues is to distribute tax revenues between hierarchical levels in such a way that would guarantee financing of the normative part of expenses, thereby minimizing the need for additional movement of funds. Financial support for the independence of territorial budgets and the creation of a sustainable revenue base for each level of the budget system reflect the concept of fiscal federalism, i.e. division of powers between government and management bodies in the field of budget and tax policy. Specific forms of implementation of tax federalism depend on the combination of two complementary trends: ensuring the appropriate pace of development of the regions, as well as leveling the economic situation of the territories and providing income for the spending powers of authorities and management at various levels.

Thus, the second stage of tax planning - justification and adjustment of the main directions of the tax and budget policy of the corresponding territory for the next financial year and the medium term - is carried out at the stage of determining the main budget parameters.

The third stage of state tax planning is the calculation of the amounts of taxes credited to the budgets of all levels. When determining the volume of taxes, the concept of “tax contingent” is used, which characterizes the total amount of a specific type of tax or other payment collected in a given territory. The calculation of tax contingents at the federal, regional and local levels of the budget system is carried out on the basis of unified fundamental approaches, but the specific methodology of the planning process has its own characteristics depending on the budget level.

Tax revenues are assessed based on long-term programs for the socio-economic development of the territory, the adopted tax policy and the methodology for forming interbudgetary relations. The main task of this stage of tax planning is to determine the volume of tax payments to the budget for the short and medium term, as well as the distribution of the total amount of tax revenue by type of payment. The calculation of tax contingents broken down by each type is the final stage of state tax planning; it is implemented in the course of forecasting the volume of budget revenues by groups, subgroups and articles of classification of budget revenues of the Russian Federation Budget classification, Chapter 3

Domestic experience of progressive methods for calculating tax contingents is small, which is explained by fundamental changes in the system of payments to the budget and, consequently, methods of their assessment that occurred during the transition to market relations. In many industrialized countries that have a stable tax system, comprehensive methodological support has been developed for the process of calculating the tax contingent. The basis of tax planning methods abroad are economic models, a system-variant approach, economic programming, and a number of analytical and evaluation techniques are also used. The most common approaches to drawing up a tax revenue plan used in industrialized countries.

Forecasting tax revenues usually begins with drawing up a basic budget, which refers to the expected revenues from each type of tax provided for by current legislation during the year. Forecasts are based on time series regression models, a number of coefficients for the distribution of tax liabilities by type of payment, the dynamics of changes in the volume of tax collections - to correlate each type of payment to a certain period (month or quarter), i.e. by the time of its actual implementation.

One of the methods for forecasting the basic level of budget revenues is the method of expert assessments, which is known as the Delphi method. It is a method of collective expert assessments based on identifying a consensus assessment of a group of specialists by interviewing them in several rounds. At the same time, the experts are informed of the results of the previous round in order to further substantiate the experts’ decisions in the next round. Currently, the Delphi method has received fairly wide recognition and is considered one of the most qualified methods of expert forecasting. Within the framework of this method, in relation to budget planning, a group of experts expresses their informed opinion on the estimated tax revenues. Although estimates of this kind may well reflect the experience of one person or group making the forecast, they will not be repeated, cannot be part of any forecast with its own internal logic, and cannot be modified depending on factors such as the level of economic activity in the country or changes in legislation. Expert assessments are usually used as a supplement to results obtained by more “rigorous” methods.

To calculate the volume of annual budget revenues in general and taxes in particular, the method of determining control values is used, for which there are several methods. The use of last year's totals increased by the expected inflation rate has become widespread. Another way is to determine future expenses, evaluate external sources of financing and only then determine the need for internal resources.

In the modern tax system, the unreasonable establishment of “control figures” in relation to the volume of tax revenues, as a rule, leads to a violation of the principles of fairness (horizontal and vertical) taxation. In general, tax revenue projections depend on the planned level of economic activity, tax laws governing the calculation of taxable income, tax obligations and payment of amounts due, and the degree of taxpayer compliance with these laws. Forecasting methods that take into account a larger number of these factors are more accurate than other methods.

Extrapolation methods are based on studying the past and present patterns of functioning and development of the socio-economic system and extending these patterns to the future, based on the fact that in economic activity the patterns are quite stable over a certain period of time. Extrapolation models have a number of advantages: they use a large degree of data aggregation, so they are especially productive when information is scarce or difficult to obtain. At the same time, such information is easier to access, it can be analyzed faster, it is easier to track changes in data, and the creation of such models is inexpensive. However, significant difficulties arise associated with data consolidation, as a result of which the user loses a large amount of information necessary to adjust the model due to changes in legislation or to analyze the causes of discrepancies between projections and actual revenues.

For these reasons, many countries began to use causal forecasting methods, in particular, a combination of regression and modeling methods in tax analysis. Most often, regression models are used to determine the basic (normative) volume of revenues, and microsimulation models are used to assess the consequences of adopted or proposed laws, with the results included in the basic forecast.

Based on data from representative samples of income declarations of both individuals and legal entities, information on product sales volumes and similar data, microsimulation models reproduce the consequences of changes in existing (or possible) tax legislation. With this approach, the tax obligations of each payer or company entered into the database are calculated, and the actions of the taxpayer in terms of determining the amount of payments to the budget are accurately reproduced. After calculating income based on the information contained in each return, the model aggregates the results across all taxpayers in the database to produce final tax revenue estimates.

The next method for estimating budget tax revenues is the method of constructing a general equilibrium model. This calculation is made on the basis of detailed information obtained from various sources, which is compiled into an extensive and consistent database reflecting the movement of goods and services in the economic space. The main element of the model is a table of economic resources and production volumes, which allows the distribution of flows of goods and services across industries, end consumers, government organizations and foreign market participants. Because the data input to the general equilibrium model comes from different sources, the model must be adjusted to ensure that all tax revenues are reproduced. The disadvantage of this process is the need to use a large amount of information and tools.

Microsimulation and general equilibrium models use historical data that must be extrapolated to produce a forecast of the level of economic activity. Both models are complex and require a huge amount of information and funds to build and operate. Often the necessary data is missing, and what is available is fragmentary. Due to the objective uncertainty of tax revenue forecasts, differences between projections and actual collections are inevitable. Usually discrepancies are a consequence of:

- errors in economic reporting used for analysis;
- incorrect choice of models for forecasting;
- unforeseen changes in legislation;
- factors that have changed the behavior of taxpayers or the operation of the tax system;
- changes in the tax administration system and the degree of compliance by taxpayers with legislation.

Determining the measure of tax compliance represents perhaps the greatest difficulty in the field of tax planning. To solve this problem, specialists use several methods. The first is to conduct indirect estimates. For example, in order to estimate the size of trade turnover, analysts can use information about the amount of money in circulation and compare it with available data on sales volumes. You can also use indicators characterizing the functioning of the national economy (for example, GDP, national income, etc.). In this case, experts take these values with an adjustment to bring them as close to the tax base as possible, and then use them to estimate how much in taxes should be paid, and compare them with the actual amount of tax revenue.

The second method is to collect detailed information about a specific category of taxpayers, which can be used to, firstly, quantify the reliability of both declared income and tax deductions, and, secondly, identify transactions involving which are missing documentation. To do this, special audits of taxpayers and their counterparties are carried out and the results are summarized to the extent of economic indicators at the state level.

Finally, there are a number of other methods also used to assess compliance with tax laws more generally. These include surveys of taxpayers, the creation of experimental databases with studied and control groups, analysis of results before and after the tax amnesty, extrapolation of the obtained values to tax return data, and analysis of reporting by tax authorities.

Thus, tax planning as one of the stages of the budget process is a scientifically based calculation of the amount of tax revenues from the budget based on accounting and assessment of the real tax base of the territory. At present, in Russia, both the methodology for calculating budget tax revenues and the database necessary for reliable modeling of the impact of various factors on the volume of budget revenues have not been fully formed. To accurately assess the size of budget revenues for the coming period and ensure timely and high-quality preparation of budgets at all levels, a serious analysis of the social, political and economic processes taking place in the country and regions, prospects and trends in their development is necessary. Budget system of the Russian Federation: Textbook/O.V. Vrublevskaya et al.-M.: Yurayt-Izdat, 2003.-pp.233-243.

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Introduction

Chapter 1 Budget system of the Russian Federation

1.1. The concept of the budget system of the Russian Federation

1.2. Structure of budget revenues of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation

1.3. Characteristics of source data

Chapter 2 Economic and mathematical methods of statistical analysis and forecasting of regional budget revenues

2.1. Methods for statistical analysis of regional budget revenues

2.2. Econometric forecasting methods

Chapter 3 Statistical analysis and forecasting of budget revenues of the Republic of Buryatia

3.1. Statistical analysis of regional budget revenues

3.2. Forecasting regional budget revenues

Conclusion

List of used literature

Applications

Introduction

The state budget is an important instrument of state regulation of the economy. It determines the forms and methods of formation of state financial resources and the directions of their use in the interests of society and especially socially weakly protected categories of the population.

Despite the emerging positive trends in recent years, the economic situation in the country as a whole continues to remain extremely difficult. The same is observed at the level of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, including in the Republic of Buryatia.

As you know, the Republic of Buryatia, unfortunately, is one of the subsidized regions. Also unfavorable are the characteristics of all the main indicators of the general economic situation: industrial production continues to fall, the amount of profit is declining, the number of unprofitable enterprises is growing, the ultra-high level of bank interest rates is blocking the investment activity of manufacturers. One of the most alarming manifestations of the degradation of the republic’s production sector is the situation in the agricultural sector. The crisis of non-payments continues to grow; this is primarily the result of the state’s passive attitude towards the economy of enterprises, including the rejection of the policy of state protectionism of Russian commodity producers.

The critical state of material production, in which the overwhelming majority of the population of Russia and Buryatia were employed, caused deep social deformations in society, the most significant of which is the violation of the normal proportions of the formation of cash incomes of the population, which occurs against the backdrop of an increasingly worsening problem of non-payment of wages. Financing of education, science, culture and healthcare from budgets at all levels does not provide even the minimum needs of these socially significant areas, in which a difficult situation has also developed because of this.

However, looking at the budget, we see that the main problem here is not only the irrational structure of the distribution of individual items, but, above all, a simple lack of funds as a result of under-fulfillment of budget revenues. Thus, for the successful development of the republic, the successful construction, organization and execution of budget revenues of the Russian Federation is necessary. Indeed, it is precisely because the revenue side has not been fully implemented that the government is forced to cut budget expenditures, including on culture and health insurance. This is also the reason for delays in the payment of pensions, benefits, allowances and wages in budgetary organizations. Therefore, this work will consider issues related to the revenue side of the budget.

In order for the governing bodies of the republic to effectively develop economic policy and evaluate previously made decisions, a deep analysis of the republic’s budget in dynamics is necessary, since the dynamics series make it possible to characterize the pattern of changes in a phenomenon over time.

Thus, the purpose of this course work is statistical analysis and forecasting of budget revenues of the Republic of Buryatia.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to complete the following tasks:

1. consider the concept of the budget system of the Russian Federation as a whole and at the regional level - the Republic of Buryatia.

2. characterize the general structure of budget revenues of the republic.

3. consider the methodology of statistical analysis and forecasting of regional budget revenues.

4. analyze the dynamics of regional budget revenues and make a forecast.

The object of study of the course work is the budget revenues of the Republic of Buryatia.

Chapter 1 Budget system of the Russian Federation

1.1 The concept of budgetoh system of the Russian Federation

Budgetary relations Z. B-D. Dondokov. Budget as a tool for effective socio-economic development of the territory. Organizational and economic mechanism for the development of depressed territories. ESGTU - Ulan-Ude, 2002. represent the financial relations of the state at the federal, regional and local levels with state, joint-stock and other enterprises and organizations, as well as the population regarding the formation and use of a centralized fund of monetary resources.

The budget is a form of formation and expenditure of funds to ensure the functions of government bodies. The concentration of financial resources in the budget is necessary for the successful implementation of the state's financial policy.

The totality of all types of budgets forms the state budget system. The relationship between its individual links, the organization and principles of constructing the budget system are usually called the budget device.

Federal, regional and local bodies of state power and administration through budgetary relations receive at their disposal a certain part of the redistributed national income, which is directed to strictly defined purposes depending on the delimitation of functions between levels of government.

The budget system of the Russian Federation, in accordance with Article 10 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, consists of three levels. The Budget Code of the Russian Federation was adopted by the State Duma on July 17, 1998:

1. federal budget and budgets of state extra-budgetary funds;

2. budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and budgets of territorial state extra-budgetary funds;

3. local budgets, including:

budgets of municipal districts, budgets of city districts, budgets of intracity municipalities of federal cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg;

budgets of urban and rural settlements.

The budget system is called upon to play an important role in the implementation of the state's financial policy, the goals of which are determined by its economic policy. At the same time, the importance of state financial regulation through the budget system is difficult to overestimate, although it is impossible not to take into account the changes currently occurring in the practice of redistribution of financial resources. This redistribution is increasingly carried out through the financial market based on their supply and demand. Therefore, the role of state financial regulation of market relations should be strengthened through the following systems: taxation, financial sanctions and benefits. It is especially important to ensure proper fulfillment (timely and in full) of financial obligations to the budget and extra-budgetary funds.

The unity of the budget system in the new conditions is realized through a unified socio-economic policy and legal framework, the use of unified budget classifications and forms of budget documentation, interaction of budgets at all levels and coordination of the principles of the budget process.

The concentration of financial resources in the budgets of different levels allows government bodies and management to have a financial basis for the implementation of their powers.

The Federal Budget of the Russian Federation is the main financial plan of the state, approved by the Federal Assembly (adopted by the State Duma and approved by the Federation Council) and having the status of a federal law. Through the federal budget, the financial resources necessary for their subsequent redistribution and use for the purposes of state regulation of the country's economic development and the implementation of social policy throughout Russia are mobilized.

The budget of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation (regional budget) is the form of formation and expenditure of funds per financial year intended to fulfill the expenditure obligations of the corresponding constituent entity of the Russian Federation.

The budget of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation and the set of budgets of municipalities that are part of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation (without taking into account interbudgetary transfers between these budgets) form the consolidated budget of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation.

The budget of a municipal entity (local budget) is the form of formation and expenditure of funds per financial year intended to fulfill the expenditure obligations of the corresponding municipal entity.

1.2 Structure of budget revenuessubjects of the Russian Federation

Before moving on to the classification of budget revenues, it is necessary to give a number of definitions.

Income What is meant by income?/ Potskhveria B.M., Bachaliashvili O.V. // Finance.-2000.-No.1-p.45-47. (as budget revenues) are mandatory non-refundable payments received by the budget. Income is divided into current and capital. Current income includes tax and non-tax revenues.

Taxes See in the same place - these are mandatory, gratuitous, non-refundable payments collected by government agencies in order to meet government needs. Taxes also include profits transferred by fiscal, export and import state monopolies, as well as profits from state monopoly purchases and sales of foreign currency (excise income).

Non-tax revenues are compensated revenues (income from property, fees, revenues from the sale of goods, services and random sales, cash profits of departmental enterprises) and some gratuitous revenues (fines, current private donations).

In accordance with Art. 41 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, budget revenues are generated from tax and non-tax types of income, as well as from gratuitous and non-refundable transfers.

The main problem arising from the structure of the formation of budget revenues of the Russian Federation is the distribution of tax revenues and non-tax deductions between the local and federal budgets, i.e. the issue of fiscal federalism (the system of fiscal relations between authorities and management at various levels at all stages of the budget process).

Like any system of inter-budgetary relations, fiscal federalism must meet the requirements of socio-economic efficiency, territorial justice and political stability. The essence of budgetary federalism as a concept of a budgetary structure lies in the normative and legislative establishment of budgetary rights and responsibilities of two equal parties of federal and regional authorities and management, the rules of their interaction at all stages of the budgetary process, methods of partial redistribution of budgetary resources between levels of the budgetary system and regions.

Thus, in accordance with Article 56 of the Code of the Russian Federation (as amended by Federal Law dated August 20, 2004 N 120-FZ)

1. Tax revenues from the following regional taxes are subject to credit to the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation:

corporate property tax - according to the norm of 100 percent;

tax on gambling business - according to the norm of 100 percent;

transport tax - according to the standard 100 percent.

2. Tax revenues from the following federal taxes and fees, taxes provided for by special tax regimes are subject to crediting to the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation:

corporate income tax at the rate established for crediting the specified tax to the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation - according to the standard of 100 percent;

tax on the profits of organizations when implementing production sharing agreements concluded before the entry into force of the Federal Law “On Production Sharing Agreements” and not providing for special tax rates for crediting the specified tax to the federal budget and budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation - according to the standard of 80 percent;

personal income tax - according to the norm of 70 percent;

inheritance or gift tax - according to the norm of 100 percent;

excise taxes on ethyl alcohol from food raw materials - according to the standard of 50 percent;

excise taxes on alcohol-containing products - according to the standard of 50 percent;

excise taxes on motor gasoline, diesel fuel, motor oils for diesel and carburetor (injection) engines - according to the standard of 60 percent;

excise taxes on alcoholic products - according to the standard of 100 percent;

excise taxes on beer - according to the standard 100 percent;

tax on the extraction of mineral resources in the form of hydrocarbon raw materials (except for natural combustible gas) - according to the standard of 5 percent;

tax on the extraction of common minerals - according to the standard of 100 percent;

tax on mineral extraction (except for minerals in the form of hydrocarbons and common minerals) - according to the standard of 60 percent;

regular payments for the extraction of mineral resources (royalties) upon implementation of production sharing agreements in the form of hydrocarbon raw materials (with the exception of natural gas) - according to the standard of 5 percent;

fee for the use of objects of aquatic biological resources (excluding inland water bodies) - according to the standard of 30 percent;

fee for the use of wildlife objects - according to the standard 100 percent;

the single tax levied in connection with the application of the simplified taxation system - according to the standard of 90 percent;

unified agricultural tax - according to the standard of 30 percent;

state duty (to be credited at the place of registration, commission of legally significant actions or issuance of documents) - according to the standard of 100 percent:

in cases considered by the constitutional (statutory) courts of the relevant constituent entities of the Russian Federation;

for state registration of interregional, regional and local public associations, branches of public associations, as well as for state registration of changes to their constituent documents;

for state registration of regional branches of political parties;

for registration of mass media, the products of which are intended for distribution primarily on the territory of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation, as well as for issuing a duplicate certificate of such registration.

And also in accordance with Article 57. BC RF (as amended by Federal Law dated August 20, 2004 N 120-FZ)

Non-tax revenues of the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are formed in accordance with Articles 41 - 43, 46 of this Code, including through:

part of the profit of unitary enterprises created by constituent entities of the Russian Federation remaining after paying taxes and other obligatory payments to the budget - in the amounts established by the laws of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation;

fees for negative impact on the environment - according to the standard 40 percent;

payments for the use of forest resources in the part exceeding the minimum payment rates for timber sold as standing trees - according to the standard of 100 percent.

1.3 Characteristics of the initialdata

Table 1.3.1. Dynamics of revenues of the consolidated budget of the Republic of Buryatia (in comparable prices, million rubles).


income, total

tax revenues,

income tax


non-tax revenues

Table 1.3.2.

Dynamics of budget revenues of the Republic of Buryatia since 1992. to 2006 (in comparable prices, million rubles (before 1998 - billion rubles)).

	Budget revenues of the Republic of Buryatia

A table with initial data in actual prices is given in Appendix 1. Sources of this information are publications of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Belarus and the State Committee on Statistics of the Republic of Belarus.

From the data presented in Table 1, some conclusions can be drawn:

Budget revenues of the Republic of Buryatia in the period from 1998 to 2006 increased many times (from 1715.5 to 13031.2 million rubles, i.e. 7.5 times), while the volume of both tax and non-tax revenues increased significantly. It can be noted that in the structure of tax revenues, the largest increase occurred due to the tax on personal income (from 224.5 million rubles to 3333.3 million rubles).

If we take a longer time series of 1992-2006, we can note that budget revenues increased almost 11,000 times, or by 13,030.2 million rubles.

However, for more complete and accurate conclusions, in-depth statistical analysis is required, and the use of special time series forecasting methods is also necessary.

Chapter 2 Economic and mathematical methods of statistical analysis and forecasting of regional budget revenues

2.1 Statistical methodsanalysis of regional budget revenues

To quantify the dynamics of regional budget revenues, statistical indicators are used: absolute growth and expansion rates, expansion rates, etc.

The calculation of dynamics series indicators is based on a comparison of its levels. Depending on the comparison method used, dynamics indicators can be calculated on constant and variable comparison bases.

To calculate dynamics indicators Statistics M, 2002 Eliseeva I.I. On a constant basis, each level of the series is compared with the same basic level. The indicators calculated in this case are called basic. To calculate dynamics indicators on a variable basis, each subsequent level of the series is compared with the previous one. Such indicators are called chain indicators.

Absolute growth is the most important statistical indicator of dynamics, determined in the difference ratio, a comparison of two levels of a series of dynamics in units of measurement of the original information. There are chain and basic:

The basic absolute increase is defined as the difference between the compared level and the level taken as a constant basis of comparison

Chain absolute increase - the difference between the level being compared and the level that precedes it,

The absolute increase may also have a negative sign, indicating how much lower the level of the period under study is than the base one.

There is a connection between basic and absolute increases: the sum of chain absolute increases is equal to the basic absolute increase of the last series of dynamics

Acceleration - the difference between the absolute growth for a given period and the absolute growth for the previous period of equal duration

The absolute acceleration indicator is used only in the chain version, but not in the basic one. A negative acceleration value indicates a slowdown in growth or an acceleration in the decline in series levels.

Growth rate is a common statistical indicator of dynamics. It characterizes the relationship between two levels of a series and can be expressed as a coefficient or as a percentage.

Basic growth rates are calculated by dividing the compared level by the level taken as a constant basis of comparison

Chain growth rates are calculated by dividing the compared level by the previous level

If the growth rate is greater than one (or 100%), then this indicates an increase in the level being studied compared to the base level. A growth rate equal to one (or 100%) shows that the level of the period under study has not changed compared to the base one. A growth rate of less than one (or 100%) indicates a decrease in the level of the period under study compared to the base one. The growth rate always has a positive sign.

There is a relationship between the base and chain growth rates: the product of successive chain growth rates is equal to the base growth rate, and the quotient of dividing the subsequent base growth rate by the previous one is equal to the corresponding chain growth rate.

The base growth rate is calculated by dividing the compared base absolute growth by the level taken as a constant base of comparison

Chain growth rate is the ratio of the compared chain absolute growth to the previous level

There is a relationship between the indicators of growth rate and growth rate, expressed by formulas 9 and 10:

(%) = (%) -- 100 (2.1.9)

(when expressing the growth rate as a percentage).

(when expressing the growth rate in coefficients).

Formulas (2.1.7) and (2.1.8) are used to find the growth rate from the growth rate.

An important statistical indicator of the dynamics of socio-economic processes is the rate of growth, which, in conditions of economic intensification, measures the increase in economic potential over time.

The rate of increase in Tn is calculated by dividing the chain absolute increases by the level taken as a constant base of comparison,

To obtain general indicators of the dynamics of socio-economic phenomena, average values are determined: average level, average absolute growth, average growth rate and increase, etc.

The average level of a series of dynamics characterizes the typical value of absolute levels.

In interval series of dynamics, the average level y is determined by dividing the sum of levels by their number n

In a moment series of dynamics with equally spaced dates, the average level is determined by the formula

In a moment series of dynamics with unequally spaced dates

where are the levels of a series of dynamics that have remained unchanged over a period of time.

The average absolute increase is a generalized characteristic of individual absolute increases in a series of dynamics. To determine the average absolute increase, the sum of chain absolute increases is divided by their number n

The average absolute increase can be determined by the absolute levels of the dynamics series. To do this, the difference between the final and basic levels of the period under study is determined, which is divided into m - 1 subperiods

Based on the relationship between chain and basic absolute growth, the average absolute growth rate can be determined by the formula

The average growth rate is a general characteristic of individual growth rates of a series of dynamics. To determine the average growth rate, the formula is used

where Tr1, Tr2,..., Trn are individual (chain) growth rates (in coefficients), n is the number of individual growth rates.

The average growth rate can be determined based on the relationship between the growth rate and the growth rate. If data on average growth rates is available, the dependence expressed by formula (2.1.19) is used to obtain average growth rates:

(when expressing the average growth rate in coefficients)

2.2 Econometric forecasting methods

The term econometric methods is understood as a general name for a complex of economic and mathematical scientific disciplines combined to study economic processes and systems.

The main method for studying systems is the modeling method, i.e. a method of theoretical analysis and practical action aimed at developing and using models. In this case, by model we will understand the image of a real process, reflecting its essential properties.

The tasks of economic and mathematical modeling are understood as: analysis of economic objects and processes, economic forecasting, prediction of the development of economic processes.

A time series consists of several components: trend, seasonal component, cyclical component (stationary random process) and random component.

A trend is understood as a stable, systematic change in a process over a long period of time. Trend assessment is carried out using parametric and non-parametric methods. The parametric method consists in selecting a smooth function that would describe the trend of the series: linear trend, polynomial, etc. The nonparametric method is used when it is impossible to select a smooth function and consists of mechanical smoothing of time series using the moving average method.

Time series of economic processes may exhibit more or less regular fluctuations. If they are strictly periodic or close to it and end within one year, then they are called seasonal fluctuations. The seasonal component is assessed in two ways: using trigonometric functions and the method of seasonal indices.

In cases where the period of oscillation is several years, the time series is said to have a cyclical component or a stationary random process. Modeling of the cyclical component is carried out using the following methods: autoregressive model, moving average model, autoregressive moving average model and autoregressive integrated moving average model.

Forecasting using component analysis consists of the following steps: estimating and removing the trend, estimating and removing the seasonal component, modeling the cyclical component, constructing the forecast model, and executing the forecast.

At the end, after forecasting, we check the resulting model for adequacy, i.e. correspondence of the model to the object or process under study. Because There cannot be a complete correspondence between a model and a real process or object; adequacy is, to some extent, a conditional concept. A time series model is considered adequate if it correctly reflects the systematic components of the time series.

There is no "automatic" way to detect a trend in a time series. However, if the trend is monotonic (steadily increasing or steadily decreasing), then analyzing such a series is usually not difficult. If the time series contains a significant error, then the first step in identifying the trend is smoothing.

Smoothing always involves some method of local averaging of data, in which non-systematic components cancel each other out. The most common smoothing method is a moving average, in which each term in the series is replaced by a simple or weighted average of n neighboring terms, where n is the width of the “window”. Instead of the average, you can use the median of the values within the window. The main advantage of median smoothing, compared to moving average smoothing, is that the results become more robust to outliers (existing within the window). Thus, if there are outliers in the data (due to measurement errors, for example), then smoothing with a median will usually result in smoother, or at least more “robust”, curves than a moving average with the same window. The main disadvantage of median smoothing is that, in the absence of obvious outliers, it results in more jagged curves (than moving average smoothing) and does not allow the use of weights.

Relatively less commonly, when the measurement error is very large, distance-weighted least squares smoothing or negative exponential weighted smoothing are used. All of these methods filter out noise and transform the data into a relatively smooth curve (see their respective sections for more details on each of these methods). Series with a relatively small number of observations and a systematic arrangement of points can be smoothed using bicubic splines.

Many monotonic time series can be well approximated by a linear function. If there is a clear monotonic nonlinear component, then the data must first be transformed to eliminate the nonlinearity. Typically this is done using a logarithmic, exponential, or (less commonly) polynomial transformation of the data.

The periodic component for a given lag k can be removed by taking a difference of the appropriate order. This means that the (i-k)th element is subtracted from each i-th element of the series. In this way, it is possible to determine the hidden periodic components of the series. Recall that autocorrelations at successive lags are dependent. Therefore, removing some autocorrelations will change other autocorrelations that may have suppressed them and make some other seasonal components more prominent.

Formalized forecasting methods are based on mathematical theory, which increases the reliability and accuracy of forecasts, significantly reduces the time required for their implementation, and allows for activities to process information and evaluate results.

Method of predictive extrapolation Chetyrkin E.M. Statistical methods of forecasting, M.-1975. consists in applying the development trend of the economic process determined for the base period to the forecast period; it is based on the preservation in the future of the existing conditions for the development of the process. When using this method, it is necessary to have information about the sustainability of the development trends of the object over a period 2-3 times longer than the forecast period. A long-term trend in economic indicators is called a trend. Sequence of actions when extrapolating:

clear definition of the problem, putting forward hypotheses about the possible development of the predicted object, considering factors that stimulate or hinder the development of this object, determining the necessary extrapolation and its permissible range;

selection of a system of parameters, unification of various units of measurement related to each parameter separately;

collection and systematization of data, checking their homogeneity and comparability;

identifying trends or symptoms of changes in the studied quantities during statistical analysis and direct extrapolation of data.

The extrapolation operation in general form can be represented as determining the value of the function:

(2.2.1) Уi + L = F (Уi L),

where Уi + L is the extrapolated level value;

L - lead period;

Уi is the level taken as the extrapolation base.

The simplest extrapolation can be carried out on the basis of the average characteristics of the series: average level, average absolute increase and average growth rate.

The simplest and most well-known is the moving average method, which performs mechanical alignment of the time series. The essence of the method is to replace the actual levels of the series with calculated averages, in which fluctuations are canceled out.

Trend extrapolation is possible if the dependence of the series levels on the time factor t is found, in this case the dependence has the form:

A model of a stationary process that expresses the value of an indicator as a linear combination of a finite number of previous values of this indicator and an additive random component is called an autoregressive model.

(2.2.3) , where

b - constant,

in - equation parameter,

Random component.

For short-term forecasting purposes, the exponential smoothing method can also be used.

Exponential smoothing is a very popular method for forecasting many time series. Historically, the method was independently discovered by Brown and Holt. Brown served in the US Navy during World War II, where he worked on submarine detection and guidance systems. He later applied the method he discovered to forecast demand for spare parts. He described his ideas in a book published in 1959. Holt's research was supported by the US Department of the Navy. Independently of each other, Brown and Holt discovered exponential smoothing for processes with a constant trend, with a linear trend, and for series with a seasonal component.

Simple exponential smoothing

A simple and pragmatically clear time series model looks like this:

(2.2.4). X t = b + t,

where b is a constant and (epsilon) is a random error.

The constant b is relatively stable at each time interval, but can also change slowly over time. One intuitive way to extract b is to use moving average smoothing, in which the most recent observations are given greater weights than the penultimate ones, the penultimate ones more weights than the penultimate ones, and so on. This is exactly how the simple exponential works. Here, exponentially decreasing weights are assigned to older observations, and, unlike the moving average, all previous observations of the series are taken into account, and not those that fell within a certain window. The exact formula for simple exponential smoothing is as follows:

(2.2.5)S t = * + (1-)*S t-1 , where

S t - exponential average (smoothed value of the series level) at time t (smoothing parameter);

b - the weight of the current observation when calculating the exponential average;

The actual level of the dynamic series at time t;

S t-1 is the exponential average of the previous period.

When this formula is applied recursively, each new smoothed value (which is also a forecast) is calculated as the weighted average of the current observation and the smoothed series. Obviously, the smoothing result depends on the parameter (alpha). If equal to 1, then previous observations are completely ignored. If equal to 0, current observations are ignored. Values between 0, 1 give intermediate results.

Empirical studies have shown that quite often simple exponential smoothing gives a fairly accurate forecast.

The smoothing parameter is often found with a grid search. Possible parameter values are divided into a grid with a certain step. For example, consider a grid of values from = 0.1 to = 0.9, with a step of 0.1. It is then selected for which the sum of squares (or mean squares) of the residuals (observed values minus step-forward predictions) is minimum.

However, another approach to determining the smoothing parameter is possible, for example, Brown proposed the following method for determining the value

(2.2.6)=2/(n+1), where

n is the length of the original dynamics series.

Chapter 3 Statistical analysis and forecasting of revenuesBudget codes of the Republic of Buryatia

3.1 Statistical analysis of regional budget revenues

To statistically analyze the dynamics of budget revenues of the Republic of Buryatia, it is necessary to calculate the following indicators.

Table 3.1.1.

Calculation of indicators of the dynamics of budget revenues of the Republic of Buryatia

	Budget revenues of the Republic of Belarus, million rubles.	base absolute growth, million rubles.	chain absolute increase, million rubles.	absolute acceleration, million rubles.	relative acceleration, million rubles	chain growth rate,%	chain growth rate, %	absolute value of 1% increase, million rubles.	growth rate



















average level, million rubles

average absolute growth, million rubles.

average growth rate, million rubles.

Average growth rate, million rubles.

Fig. 3.1.1 Dynamics of budget revenues of the Republic of Buryatia

Analyzing the results of Table 2, we can draw some conclusions:

The basic absolute increase shows that in the period from 1992 to 2006, regional budget revenues increased by 13,030.20 million rubles. Chain absolute increases show that budget revenues were lower compared to previous years in 1997 and 1998; the rest of the time there was an increase in budget revenues.

Growth rates characterize absolute growth in relative values. The growth rate calculated as a percentage shows how many percent the compared level has changed in relation to the level taken as the basis of comparison. The highest growth rate was in 1992, with an absolute value of 1% increase of 1.49 million rubles, but already in 1993 the growth rate was 161.99% with an absolute value of 1% increase of 1.01 million rubles. In 1997 and 1998, the growth rate was negative.

The growth rate characterizes the economy's expansion of economic potential. Its highest value was recorded in 2002, the lowest in 1998.

The average absolute annual growth is 930.73 million rubles, that is, in absolute terms, the budget revenues of the republic annually increase by an average of 930.73 million rubles, with the average growth rate being 194.21%, and the average growth rate being 94.21%.

Analyzing the graph in Fig. 3.1.2. we can conclude that regional budget revenues increase mainly due to tax revenues, that is, due to tax contributions to the budget, which in turn increase due to personal income taxes, which accordingly indicates an increase in incomes of the population of the republic. As for excise revenues, they increase due to changes in tax legislation in accordance with state policy.

3.2 Forecasting regional budget revenues

The most effective in identifying the presence of a trend as a whole in a series of dynamics are considered to be the cumulative t-test and the phase-frequency criterion of Valles and Moore.

Cumulative t-test.

A hypothesis is put forward

: There is no trend in the original time series.

The accumulated total of deviations of empirical values from the average level of the original time series.

The total sum of squared deviations, that is

Table 3.2.1.

Calculation of the cumulative t-test

at significance level b=0.05

Phase-frequency criterion of Valles and Moore.

: chain absolute increments form a random sequence.

Phase is a sequence of identical signs of the difference, h is the number of phases.

Table 3.2.2.

Calculation of the phase-frequency criterion of Valles and Moore.

at significance level b=0.05

The hypothesis is rejected, the levels of the time series do not form a random sequence, but have a certain pattern in their changes, therefore, there is a trend in the time series.

Modeling a random component.

Series criterion based on the sample median.

: if deviations from the trend are random, then their alternation should be random.

Table 3.2.3.

Calculation of the series criterion based on the sample median.

(length of the longest series)

V=3 (number of series - sequences of identical signs “+” or “-”)

b=0.05 (significance level)

Both inequalities are satisfied, the hypothesis is confirmed, the sample is random, and the deviations in the levels of the time series are random.

Criterion for ascending and descending series.

: The sample is random.

(length of the longest series)

V=5 (number of episodes)

b=0.05 (significance level)

because n<26, то (число подряд идущих одинаковых знаков в самой длинной серии).

Both inequalities are satisfied, the hypothesis is confirmed, and the sample is random.

0,946/0,54=1,75; 1,75<3, ассиметрия несущественна, совокупность однородна.

Conclusion: the initial data are normal, their further analysis is possible.

Construction of a linear trend equation.

Using least squares, we determine the parameters of the linear trend equation:

У=-3305.6238+1055.644t

On average, over 1 year, budget revenues of the Republic of Buryatia increase by 1055.644 million rubles.

R^2=0.8917 - the value of the approximation reliability (the closer the actual data is to the trend, the higher its value)

r^2=97.12% - coefficient of determination (share of factor variance in the total).

97.12% of the total variation in trait Y is accounted for by the explained variation, which means the equation is statistically significant.

Using the linear trend extrapolation method, we obtain that the budget revenues of the Republic of Belarus in 2007 will amount to 13584.6802 million rubles.

Analyzing the graphs of the dynamics of budget income of the Republic of Belarus and their various trends, we can conclude that changes in income are most clearly described by a polynomial trend of the sixth order, while the highest value of approximation reliability is observed - 0.9941.

The exponential trend parameters have the following interpretation. Parameter a is the initial level of the time series at time t = 0. The value is the average growth rate of the series levels per unit of time. The average annual chain growth rate of the time series was 94.21%.

Exponential smoothing.

Currently, to take into account the degree of “staleness” of data in weighted moving averages, weights that obey the exponential law are used, i.e. The method of exponential averages is used. The point of exponential averages is to find averages in which the influence of past observations decays with distance from the moment for which the averages are determined.

У=-3305.6238+1055.644t is a linear trend, the parameters of which were obtained by least squares.

First order initial conditions

Second order initial conditions

Table 3.2.4

Calculation of exponential smoothing.

When using exponential averages in forecasting, each new forecast is based on the previous forecast:

F t+1 = A CH U t + (1 - A)F t ,

where A is the smoothing constant;

F t -- forecast for the current period (period t);

F t+1 -- forecast for the next period (period t + 1);

Y t -- actual demand for period t.

The forecast cannot always accurately correspond to the actual values of the predicted value due to the presence of random factors that may influence the actual data, so the forecast error is usually calculated.

Forecast error = Forecast value - Actual value.

Having made the above calculations, we obtain a forecast of budget income for 2007 and 2008: 11242.7 and 17484.9 million rubles. respectively. The forecast error is 1819.4 million rubles.

Conclusion

As the results of the analysis of the dynamics of budget revenues of the Republic of Buryatia showed, the revenue side of the budget is increasing from year to year at a fairly rapid pace. On average, over 1 year, budget revenues of the Republic of Buryatia increase by 1055.644 million rubles, budget revenues of the Republic of Belarus in 2007. will amount to 13584.6802 million rubles.

Their increase occurs mainly due to tax revenues, that is, due to tax deductions to the budget, which in turn increase due to the personal income tax, which accordingly indicates an increase in the income of the population of the republic. As for excise revenues, they increase due to changes in tax legislation in accordance with state policy.

Between 1992 and 2006, regional budget revenues increased by 13,030.20 million rubles. However, their growth was not stable. During the period under review, budget revenues were lower compared to previous years in 1997 and 1998; the rest of the time there was an increase in budget revenues.

The highest growth rate (9837.91%) was observed in 1994, which was associated with changes in the tax legislative framework of the Russian Federation as a whole, as well as in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, in particular, the Republic of Buryatia in the early 90s.

The lowest growth rate of budget revenues (88.6%) was observed in 1998, which was obviously associated with the crisis situation in the economic system of the country and its regions.

The average level of budget income of the Republic of Buryatia, as a typical value of time series levels, amounted to 6529.7 million rubles.

Thus, 1998 can be called a crisis year for the republican budget, when most indicators were low. However, at present, none of the above indicators can be considered stable, although in general budget revenues for the analyzed period are characterized by growth.

The goal of this course work was achieved by completing the above tasks.

WITHlist of used literature

1. Antokhonova I.V. Methods for forecasting socio-economic processes. - Ulan-Ude, 2005.

2. Budget Code of the Russian Federation.

3. The income potential of the regions and its national significance / A. Seleznev, N. Dotsenko // Economist-2006.-No.9-p.12-22.

4. Dubrova T.A. Statistical methods of forecasting, 2003.

5. Endonov Ch.V. Education and development of the budget of the Republic of Buryatia. - Ulan-Ude, 2000

6. Z. B.D. Dondokov. Budget as a tool for effective socio-economic development of the territory. Organizational and economic mechanism for the development of depressed territories. ESGTU - Ulan-Ude, 2002.

7. Tax Code of the Russian Federation.

8. Non-tax revenues and their role in the budget policy of the state / A.R. Batyaeva // Financial law - 2005.-№1-p.15-19.

9. Increasing the own revenues of the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation at the expense of non-tax revenues / O.A. Grishakova//Finance and credit.-2004.-No.8-p.23-29

10. Income forecasting needs improvement/ Yandiv M.I.// Finance.-2001.-No.4-p.12-14.

11. Problems of tax revenues to regional budgets / E.E. Smirnova // Auditor - 2005.-№12.-p.3-11.

12. Statistics M, 2002 Eliseeva I.I.

13. Formation of the income potential of regions in the context of reform of the budget process / S. N. Ryabukhin / ECO-2006.-No. 10

14. What is meant by income?/ Potskkhveria B.M., Bachaliashvili O.V. // Finance.-2000.-No.1-p.45-47.

15. Chetyrkin E.M. Statistical methods of forecasting, M.-1975.

Application 1.

Budget revenues of the Republic of Buryatia (in actual prices, million rubles).

1.2. Budget planning.

1.3. Budget forecasting.

1.4. Methodology for planning federal budget revenues.

1.5. Planning and forecasting of income as interpreted by various authors.

2. Planning the activities of the enterprise using the budgeting method.

2.1. Background information.

2.2. Making a forecast.

3. Forecasting using the method of proportional dependencies.

3.1. Background information.

3.2. Making a forecast.

Conclusion

Bibliography
Introduction

In modern economic literature and periodicals, issues devoted to individual problems of budget preparation and execution, most often related to taxes, as the basis of the budget revenue base, are widely discussed.

The state budget is the most important planning and control instrument through which the state redistributes more than a third of the national income and more than half of its funds. Through the state budget, the government implements economic and social, domestic and foreign policies. The implementation of economic and social development programs and the stability of the country's social situation depend on the size of the state budget, composition and the ratio of its income and expenses. It can influence economic activity, investment policy, improving the structure of the economy, the development of priority industries and the social sphere.

The central indicator of the state budget is the amount of its revenues. The amount of income determines government spending on economic development, the rate of economic growth and the level of well-being of the country. Comparing state budget revenues with its expenses allows us to determine the amount and level of the deficit. This role of state budget revenues in the life of society and the state necessitates improving the methodology for their formation and forecasting the development of new approaches in this direction. The purpose of this course work is to acquire theoretical and practical skills in the field of financial planning and forecasting, in particular to study the methodology of financial planning of state budget revenues, and to gain practical skills in the field of planning enterprise activities using the budgeting method and forecasting using the method of proportional dependencies.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to complete the following tasks:

· study the concept of budget revenues, budget planning and forecasting;

· study the methodology of income planning;

· consider a controversial issue in the field of planning and forecasting budget revenues;

· planning of enterprise activities using the budgeting method;

· forecasting using the method of proportional dependencies.

The object of research in the course work is the enterprise JSC “Leader”. Planning and forecasting are carried out on the basis of available information about the activities of the enterprise, on the basis of available accounting and financial statements. Planning of an enterprise's activities using the budgeting method is carried out for a period of 1 year, forecasting using the method of proportional dependencies is compiled for another year. In total, the enterprise's activities are planned for the next two years.

1. Planning and forecasting of federal budget revenues.

1.1.The essence of the state budget. Budget revenues

The central place in the system of public finances is occupied by the state budget - the financial plan of the state for the current financial year, which has the force of law. The Budget Code of the Russian Federation defines the budget as “a form of formation and expenditure of a fund of funds intended for financial support of the tasks and functions of the state and local government.”

The state budget consists of 2 interconnected parts that complement each other: revenue and expenditure. The revenue part shows where funds come from to finance the activities of the state, which sections of society contribute more of their income. The structure of income is not constant and depends on the specific economic conditions of the country’s development, market conditions and the economic policy being implemented. Any change in the structure of budget revenues reflects changes in economic processes. The expenditure part shows for what purposes the funds accumulated by the state are directed. It should be noted that the budget, as a fund of funds, never exists in its entirety, because As income is received, they are used to cover expenses. It is only a plan for the formation and use of a national fund of funds, that is, a list of state income and expenses, agreed upon with each other, both in volume and in terms of receipt and use.

Budget revenues– funds received free of charge and irrevocably in accordance with the current classification and existing legislation. In the process of generating budget revenues, a part of the GDP created in the process of social reproduction is forcibly withdrawn in favor of the state. On this basis, financial relations between the state and taxpayers arise.

Budget revenues have significant differences in their payers, objects of taxation, methods of withdrawal, payment terms, etc. But at the same time, they differ in unity, because pursue one goal - the formation of the revenue side of budgets of different levels. They are characterized by a monetary form and impersonality.

Budget revenues can be tax and non-tax nature. The revenue side of the budget is formed mainly from taxes. The leading place among tax revenues of the federal budget is occupied by VAT. Together with customs duties and income tax, it exceeds 2/3 of tax revenues. Also, a significant share of revenue comes from excise taxes and payments for the use of natural resources, and a tax on the purchase of foreign banknotes. Non-tax Budget revenues are generated as a result of either the economic activity of the state itself, or the redistribution of already received revenues across levels of the budget system. Among the non-tax revenues of the federal budget, one can highlight income from the sale of state-owned property, income from the sale of state reserves and from foreign economic activity, as well as income from federally owned property, incl. profit of the Central Bank of Russia. In addition, federal budget revenues take into account funds from targeted budget funds. Taxes received by the respective budgets are called fixed revenues.

1.2. Budget planning .

The content of budget planning also includes issues of theory and methodology for drawing up budgets and other financial plans. Budget planning includes not only the preparation of a budget for all parts of the budget system, but also its execution. This definition of budget planning follows from the very definition of the budget given in the Law.
“On the fundamentals of the budget structure and budget process in the RSFSR.

The direct preparation of the budget for the coming year takes place on the basis of its execution for the current year and those financial norms and standards that are communicated to the territories, economic sectors, and budgetary institutions.
Budgeting based on revenues should take into account the current tax system in the country, the real possibility of mobilizing revenues for each type of taxes and fees.

With the help of budget planning, the movement of budget funds is determined in accordance with the goals and objectives established in the Budget Message of the President of the Russian Federation, the main directions of the country's socio-economic development and forecast calculations for the relevant territories; budget planning is designed to show real acceptable costs and justify the strategy for solving priority sectoral issues, regional and municipal tasks. Budget planning includes: determination of the total volume and sources of budget funds at the federal, regional, and municipal levels; formation of budget expenditures on the basis of a unified methodology for calculating the minimum budgetary provision, norms and standards of financial costs for the provision of state and municipal services; establishing directions for the use of budget funds that contribute to the implementation of plans and forecasts for the socio-economic development of the country and leading to an increase in the efficiency of societies, production, saving material, labor and financial resources. Budget planning links macroeconomic forecasts about budget revenues with proposals for government spending.

Before budget planning, the following basic principles are put forward: tasks :
- establishing the total volume of financial resources and their distribution in individual areas, national-state and administrative entities of the Russian Federation, identifying the size of the direction of the economy’s own resources;
- organizing work to mobilize cash savings and other financial resources of the state, financial support for the development of the economy, science and the social sphere;

Exercising financial control over the progress of budget implementation.

Principles budget planning:

Regulation of budgetary issues by uniform legal norms;

Targeted and targeted nature of the allocation of budget funds;

Continuity of annual budget planning;

Stability of financial indicators (standards, tax rates, estimates); balance method.

In the context of the transfer of the Russian economy to market economic principles, the content, methodology and methodology of budget planning have changed significantly. Quantitative guidelines used in budget planning have changed from prescriptive to indicative (recommendatory); it became possible, instead of gross cost indicators, to use other measures aimed at final qualitative and quantitative results; there was a need to use different options for forecast calculations; great importance began to be attached to the selection of optimal solutions.

The most common budget planning methods include methods: economic analysis; extrapolation; mathematical modeling; index, balance sheet, etc.

Budget planning is carried out in several stages: drawing up draft budgets by financial authorities at different levels; consideration of draft budgets in executive authorities; consideration of draft budgets and approval of budgets in legislative (representative) government bodies of various levels and in local governments; quarterly distribution by financial authorities of the federal, regional and municipal levels of income and expenses, as well as the preparation of consolidated budget schedules.

Budget planning consists of two stages: preparatory (consolidated budget planning, organizational and methodological measures are carried out, the expected budget execution for the current year is determined, norms and standards are developed, the main directions, ways and means of mobilizing financial resources are determined, opportunities are sought to link the planned income and expenses for the coming year, etc.) and specifically targeted (the types and amounts of revenue receipts are planned, specific directions for spending budget funds by industry, department and intended purpose are established). At the second stage, budget revenues for each type of taxes and fees are determined. All further organization and methodological work on drawing up draft budgets at different levels is also carried out by the relevant financial authorities.

Budget planning is ultimately aimed at drawing up a draft budget. All government and administrative bodies take part in the preparation and execution of the budget. Budget planning is directly carried out by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the ministries of finance of the republics within the Russian Federation, and the financial departments of the administrations of other territories in accordance with the rights granted to them.

1.3. Budget forecasting .

A justified assumption, based on real calculations, about the directions of budget development, the possible states of its income and expenses in the future, the ways and timing of achieving these states; an integral part of the budget process, budget planning. The forecast is based on a thorough study of information about the state of the budget at the moment; determining, in accordance with the identified patterns, different options for achieving the expected budget indicators; finding, as a result of analysis, the best option for the development of budgetary relations.

Budget forecasting focuses on finding the optimal solution to problems and choosing the best possible option. In the process of budget forecasting, various options for the state's budget policy and different concepts of budget development are considered, taking into account many economic and social, objective and subjective factors operating at the federal, regional and local levels. Unlike financial planning, which is carried out, as a rule, for a longer period, budget forecasting is targeted and designed for the budget period, i.e., no more than a year.

Two approaches are used to make forecasts: genetic and normative-target.

With a genetic approach forecasting is carried out from the present to the future based on establishing cause-and-effect relationships; at normative-target the future goal and guidelines for moving towards it according to standards are determined, possible events and measures that need to be taken to achieve a given result in the future are examined.

When developing a budget development forecast, various methods can be used. Different authors identify different groups of methods or only some specific methods. 1) Extrapolation method, i.e. drawing up a perspective based on the practice of previous periods. However, this method is suitable for forecasting only some items of budget expenditures and revenues that are more or less stable.
2) The method of expert assessments, i.e., a forecast based on assessments made and substantiated by competent specialists in certain branches of science and the national economy, is also not without drawbacks, since it has an element of subjectivity. 3) Application of these two methods simultaneously; In this case, both objective development trends and expert opinions are used.

I.M. Aleksandrov identifies more methods budget forecasting: mathematical modeling; index; normative; expert assessments; balance sheet, etc. The method of mathematical modeling, based on the use of economic and mathematical models, allows you to take into account many interrelated factors affecting budget indicators, and select from several options for a draft budget the most suitable one that corresponds to the accepted concept of the country’s socio-economic development and the ongoing budget policy.

The index method uses a variety of indices that reflect price dynamics, living standards, real incomes of the population, etc.

The tools of the normative method are progressive norms and fiscal standards necessary for calculating budget revenues based on established tax rates and taking into account certain macroeconomic guidelines.

The method of expert assessments is resorted to when the patterns of development of certain economic processes have not yet been identified, there are no analogues and it is necessary to use specially performed calculations by top-class experts.

The balance sheet method, in which comparisons are made (assets with liabilities, the whole with its parts, etc.), allows you to link the expenses of any budget with its income, to identify the proportions in the distribution of funds between budgets.

Budget forecasting comes down to calculating probable budget revenues, determining the volumes and directions of spending budget funds, and establishing possible changes in interbudgetary relations.

When forecasting budget revenues, the following tasks are solved: the volume of financial resources in the country is calculated; the level and size of their possible centralization at the disposal of the state and local government are determined; the most effective forms and methods of withdrawing funds from the budget are identified; the possibilities of influencing the development of production and services, the introduction of new technologies, etc. through the taxation system are explored; the optimal proportions of income distribution between budgets of different levels (federal, regional, local) are determined.

1.4. Methodology for planning budget revenues.

Income planning– the most important element of the tax and budget policy of the state, during which the relevant government bodies make decisions on amending tax legislation and reducing the share of government spending; are developing measures to improve the general economic situation in the country and create the necessary conditions for economic development.

Budget revenue planning is a formalized sequence of actions by all branches of government related to the development of forecast data on the collection of tax and non-tax payments, their consideration, approval and distribution across levels of the budget system, that is, it covers the scope of revenue planning on the scale of federal, regional and local budgets.

Income planning includes three important areas:

1) Calculation of the projected amounts of mobilization of contingents of all types of income.

2) Distribution of regulatory revenues by levels of the budget system.

3) Determining the relationship between budgets of various levels in terms of providing subsidies, subventions, and subsidies.

Planning methodology– is a set of research techniques for the purpose of understanding and transforming reality. Planning methodology includes logic, methods and principles. However, the basis of the planning methodology is made up of both general and specific economic laws of reproduction of the social product. The main principles of budget planning are the continuity of planning the annual budget, the balance sheet method, the unity of legal regulation, the principle of identifying a leading link, the principle of science, marginality, etc.

For budget planning, and in particular budget revenue planning, interscientific planning methods are mainly used, in particular the extrapolation method and the method of expert assessments. The extrapolation method involves drawing up a perspective based on the practice of previous periods. The expert assessment method is a forecast based on assessments made and substantiated by competent specialists. The use of these two methods simultaneously allows you to create a more realistic picture when determining a particular predicted indicator.

The income planning methodology is not established by law and therefore there are no uniform planning methods and principles. However, government agencies responsible for drafting budgets apply general planning principles and methods.

Income planning is carried out in accordance with the forecast of the most important macroeconomic and socio-economic indicators, such as:

· gross domestic product;

· gross national product;

· pure national product;

· national income;

· payment balance;

· Population;

· personal income of the population, etc.

Each of these indicators serves as the basis for calculating both the total amount of budget revenues and individual groups, types of taxes and other non-tax revenues to budgets.

1.5. Planning and forecasting of income as interpreted by various authors.

Budget system of Russia: a textbook for university students studying economics / Ed. G.B. Polyak – 2nd ed., revised. and additional – M.: UNITY-DANA, 2009.

Tax revenue planning.

Tax revenue planning is a sequence of actions by all branches of government related to the development of forecast data on the collection of tax payments. Depending on the level of the business entity, tax planning is divided into two levels:

· tax planning at the macro level;

· tax planning at the level of a business entity or organization.

Tax planning at the macro level. Covers the scope of planning on the scale of federal, regional and local budgets. The main task of tax planning at this level is to determine for a given time period the economically justified amount of tax revenues to the corresponding link of the budget system.

There are current (operational, short-term) and long-term (medium-term, long-term) tax planning. Operational planning, carried out for a month or quarter, is designed to provide a realistic assessment of tax revenues in the near future. Short-term tax planning serves as the basis for drawing up budgets for the corresponding levels of government for the next year. During current planning, the size of both the total set of taxes and their individual types is analyzed in detail and determined. In long-term planning there is no division by type of taxes; it covers the totality of all taxes. Both current and long-term planning are simultaneously based on the forecast of the country's socio-economic development for the corresponding period of time and serve as the basis for determining the main characteristics of this forecast. In general, the tax planning process can be represented as the following scheme of actions:

1. the goals to be achieved by the taxation system are established;

2. methods and specific measures for achieving the set goals are developed;

3. tax powers and revenue sources are delineated between authorities and management at various levels;

4. an assessment is made of the dynamics of tax receipts for previous periods in comparable conditions, taking into account changes in tax legislation;

5. the level of collection and debt for each tax is analyzed;

6. an assessment is made of the proposed changes in tax legislation;

the tax base for each tax is determined taking into account the forecast of socio-economic development of the country and individual industries.
Planning of non-tax revenues.

The basis for planning non-tax budget revenues is a new order - the functions of forecasting these revenues are assigned to revenue administrators. In accordance with the order of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation (No. 114 of December 10, 2004), as part of the budget process, budget revenue administrators monitor, control, analyze and forecast revenue receipts from the relevant revenue source and submit revenue projections for the next financial year to the relevant financial authorities .

Revenue administrator is a new concept in financial and budget planning and forecasting of the Russian Federation. Currently, non-tax revenue forecasting is carried out by revenue administrators based on data from previous periods (extrapolation method), taking into account planned changes in legislation, as well as the pace of economic and social development.

In the composition of non-tax revenues of the federal budget, the largest share is occupied by income received by the state from foreign economic activity; the main share of this income comes from customs duties. When planning income from foreign economic activity, customs duties and others from foreign economic activity are forecast separately.

Customs duties are planned according to the following formula:

Sitog=Sitem(1)+Sitem(2)+…+Sitem(T), where Siteg is customs duties, fees and other payments transferred in full to the federal budget;

Spunkt – the total amount of customs payments transferred to the federal budget by one customs point;

T – the number of customs points carrying out this type of activity on the territory of the Russian Federation.

Income from foreign economic activities is planned according to the formula:

VED=SS(1)+SS(2)+…+SS(N), where

N is the number of transactions carried out by the state in the foreign economic sphere with the receipt of funds and their transfer to the budget;

CC - the amount of funds received by the state from one transaction.

Calculation of other non-tax income. Income from the use of property in state and municipal ownership, and income from the provision of paid services and compensation of costs occupy the largest share in the composition of non-tax revenues of the federal budget, as well as in the structure of non-tax revenues of the budgets of the constituent entities of the Federation and local authorities.

Budget planning and forecasting: a textbook for university students studying economics / Miroshkin N.P., Botkin O.I. – Izhevsk [Ekaterinburg ],2007

The system of state and municipal revenues together forms budget revenues. In the modern science of financial law, for the purpose of a more in-depth study of the category under consideration, it is customary to classify budget revenues on a variety of grounds. One of the main ones is the classification of types of income allocated depending on the form of their formation. When using this division, three types of budget revenues are distinguished:

non-tax budget revenues;
tax revenues of budgets.
Free transfers.

Tax planning is one of the main components of financial planning. Its main task is the preliminary calculation of options for the amounts of direct and indirect taxes.

The Budget Code of the Russian Federation defines the unity of the budget system, that is, there must be a general procedure for calculating forecast indicators throughout the country, providing a unified mechanism for determining the revenue potential of both the subjects of the Federation and municipalities. This approach to reforming interbudgetary relations made it possible to move to formalized rules for the distribution of financial assistance between the constituent entities of the Federation.

The proposed methodology is based on the use of indicators that objectively measure the income capabilities of subjects and municipalities based on tax bases.

The process of forming tax potential includes the following blocks:

normative - legislative;
economic;
budget.

The normative-legislative block includes a set of basic parameters of tax legislation that reflect the formation of the tax base and reflect the tax burden. At the same time, the regulatory block is differentiated by budget levels.

Second block - includes parameters of economic development of the real sector of the economy, forming the tax base and reflecting the tax burden in general and by sectors of the economy.

Third block - changes occurring in budgetary and tax legislation in tax deductions to different levels of budgets.

Based on the structure of the tax potential of the factors influencing its formation, as well as the requirements and capabilities of the current legislation, the basis for calculating the tax potential are:

· indicators of tax bases and tax rates in accordance with current legislation;

· forecast indicators for social and economic development of the relevant territories;

· indices – deflators (consumer price indices);

· indicator of the level of collection of taxes and fees;

· indicator of the level of arrears and overpayments of taxes and fees.

Finance and Credit, No. 8, 2008

Justification for forecasting tax revenues is one of the urgent tasks when forming a draft budget.

To forecast the amount of tax revenues for the next year, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation uses the following scheme: the nominal value of GDP for the next year is predicted and based on GDP (or taking into account the trend of changes), the expected nominal value of revenues is found. This method has an error in forecasting nominal GDP and includes an error in expected annual inflation rates, and the share of individual taxes in GDP changes significantly. That is, the relative error of a given forecast is equal to the sum of the relative errors of its components, so its value can reach significant values. Inflation rates significantly affect the amount of tax revenues. Hence, it makes sense to analyze not only the dynamics of nominal, but also real revenues. The calculation methods used by the Ministry of Finance do not provide sufficient accuracy of forecast indicators, and also make it impossible to determine a quantitative assessment of the error of forecast values and, accordingly, the degree of risk of the proposed forecasts.

In my opinion, the problem of planning state budget revenues is of particular relevance and importance. Since the budget is the most important instrument through which the state distributes national income and funds; and income is its central indicator. The amount of expenses depends on the amount of income. State budget revenues play a large role in the state's economy, and the problem of their planning should occupy a central place, since there is no specific methodology; different authors propose different methods of revenue planning. From the article in the magazine “Finance and Credit” (No. 8, 2008) it is clear that the methodology currently used by the Ministry of Finance has large errors, because Not only nominal GDP changes, but also the inflation rate and the share of individual tax revenues in the budget. So why plan budget revenues with a large error, if the authors offer much more accurate methods.
2. Planning the activities of the enterprise using the budgeting method.

2.1 Background information

Make a forecast of the financial statements of the enterprise JSC Leader using the budgeting method. Assess the change in the attractiveness of the enterprise for shareholders and investors in the planned period.

The balance sheet of the enterprise JSC Leader as of December 31 of the reporting year (period (t – 1) preceding the forecast one) is given in Table. 1.1

The financial and economic position of the enterprise JSC Leader in the reporting year is presented in table. 1.2.

The initial data for forecasting are given in table. 1.3 – 1.7. It is assumed that the enterprise produces two types of products: “A” and “B”. The technological process of manufacturing each type of product consists of two sets of technological operations in the preparatory and machine shops of the enterprise.

Two main materials are used in production: X and Y. Material X is used to produce product A, and material Y is used to produce product B.

In the budgeting process, you will need information about the conditions for the formation of inventories of finished products. Assume that finished goods inventories at the end of the forecast period at the JSC Leader enterprise should be at the level of 50% of expected sales in the next quarter.

It is known that sales revenue receipts usually do not correspond to the shipping period. Accept the following conditions for receipt of sales revenue in the forecast period: 50% of sales are paid in the sales quarter, 50% in the next quarter.

To forecast cash flows for an enterprise, take the following information on payment of cash expenses:

1. Production labor, basic production materials and variable overhead are paid monthly;

2. Fixed overhead and selling and administrative costs are paid quarterly in equal amounts;

3. Taxes payable amount to Nn P t-1 million rubles. and will be paid in equal amounts quarterly throughout the year;

4. Capital investments are paid quarterly;

5. Accounts payable in this task in the forecast period remains unchanged K3Pt-1 million rubles.

Compile a financial forecast for the coming year (t) broken down by quarter.

Table 1.1 Initial balance sheet of the enterprise JSC Leader, million rubles.

Index	At the end of the year
ASSETS
1.	Fixed assets and other non-current assets – total, including:	770
1.1.	Equipment and machinery (at book value)	875
1.2.	Depreciation	105
2.	Current assets – total, including:	115,5
2.1.	Finished goods inventories	21,09
2.2.	Stocks of raw materials and materials	5,77
2.3.	Accounts receivable	70
2.4.	Cash	18,64
Balance	885,5
PASSIVE
1.	Sources of own funds – total, including:	826
1.1.		735
1.2.	retained earnings	91
2.	Long-term loans
3.	Short-term liabilities – total, including:	59,5
3.1.		36,75
3.2.		22,75
Balance	885,5

Table 1.2. Financial and economic situation of the enterprise

JSC "Leader" in the reporting year, million rubles.

Table 1.3. Sales forecast for the JSC Leader enterprise for the coming period

Table 1.4. Manufacturing Labor Cost Standards

Table 1.5. Material resource consumption standards

Table 1.6. Estimated overhead costs for the forecast period, million rubles.

Table 1.7. Volumes of upcoming capital investments, million rubles.

2.1. Budgeting

1. Let's compose budget for direct materials costs– compiled in physical and value terms and shows the general production needs for basic materials. The purpose of this budget is to: determine the amount of materials needed to produce the planned volume of products and the amount of materials that need to be purchased during the planned period.

Budgeting procedure:

A. Determination of production volume (required output), pcs.

Vpr-va = = ZGP on the checkpoint + Vprod – ZGP on the np

B. Determination of material consumption

Vproduct ∙ Nrm per unit

B. Determining the cost of materials

Consumption mats ∙ Tsm

Costs and m = ∑ V production ∙ Nrm ∙ Cm

Table 2.1. Cost budget for the purchase of raw materials and materials

Index	Quarter	In a year
I	II	III	IV
*Production of finished products, pcs.*
Product A
	450	450	725	725	725
(+) Sales	1450	900	900	1450	4700
	725	450	450	725	725
(=) Required release	1175	900	1175	1450	4700
Product B
Inventories at the end of the planning period	1025	1025	1025	1025	1025
(+) Sales	2050	2050	2050	2050	8200
(-) Inventories at the beginning of the planning period	1025	1025	1025	1025	1025
(=) Required release	2050	2050	2050	2050	8200
*Consumption of basic production materials by quarter, units.*
Material X	2702,5	2070	2702,5	3335	10810
Material Y	6970	6970	6970	6970	27880
*Procurement of basic production materials*
Material X
Cost of purchases, million rubles.	4,59425	3,519	4,59425	5,6695	18,377
Material Y
Cost of purchases, million rubles.	6,97	6,97	6,97	6,97	27,88
Total cost of materials for the enterprise, million rubles.	11,5643	10,489	11,5643	12,6395	46,257

46.257 million rubles. is spent by the enterprise on the purchase of raw materials and materials necessary to ensure the planned output (production volume).

2. Let's compose budget for direct labor costs– is based on the division of costs into direct and indirect and takes into account the costs of occupational labor of key production personnel. The purpose of this budget is to: calculate the total costs of attracting labor resources directly employed in production.

W from = Labor costs ∙ FROM for 1 person/hour

Labor costs = Vprod (Required output) ∙ Labor intensity of unit of production

Z from = ∑ V pr-va ∙ Labor intensity per unit of production ∙ OT for 1 person/hour

Table 2.2. Production cost budget

labor (direct labor)

Index	Quarter	In a year
I	II	III	IV
*Labor costs, people – h.*
Preparatory workshop
products A	82250	63000	82250	101500	329000
products B	358750	358750	358750	358750	1435000
Total	441000	421750	441000	460250	1764000
Machine shop
products A	205625	157500	205625	253750	822500
products B	358750	358750	358750	358750	1435000
Total	564375	516250	564375	612500	2257500
*Production labor costs, million rubles.*
Preparatory workshop	9,261	8,85675	9,261	9,66525	37,044
Machine shop	11,851875	10,84125	11,851875	12,8625	47,4075
Total for the enterprise	21,112875	19,698	21,112875	22,52775	84,4515

84.4515 million rubles. - the costs incurred by the enterprise for direct payment of labor in order to ensure the planned output of products.

3. Let's create an overhead budget. Overhead costs are the costs of an enterprise associated with production, excluding direct costs of materials and labor. They are divided into fixed overhead costs (their value does not change with changes in capacity utilization or changes in production volume) and variable overhead costs (their value changes). The purpose of this budget is to plan the enterprise's overhead costs based on the average level of overhead costs per unit of production.

AC HP = Vpr-va ∙ Let’s rest HP on units

Table 2.3. Overhead budget, million rubles.

4. Determine the value stocks of raw materials and finished products at the end of the planning period. To do this we need to calculate average variable costs(calculated data are presented in table 2.4)

Average variable costs:

NR = Variable Overhead Level

Table 2.4. Average variable costs, thousand rubles. / PC.

Table 2.5. Inventories at the end of the planning period, million rubles.

5. Let's calculate cost price products sold are the current costs of production and sales of products, expressed in monetary terms.

Table 2.6. Cost of goods sold

in the planning period, million rubles.

Index	Meaning
Inventories of raw materials and materials at the beginning of the planning period	5,77
+ Procurement of materials	46,257
Available raw materials and supplies for production	52,027
- Inventories of raw materials and supplies at the end of the planning period	6,31975
Cost of raw materials used	45,70725
+ Production labor costs	84,4515
+ Overhead	106,69
Cost of manufactured products	236,84875
+ Inventories of finished products at the beginning of the planning period	21,09
- Inventories of finished products at the end of the planning period	22,403625
Total Cost of products sold	235,5351

6. Determine the predicted sales revenue:

BP= (Tsa* V a)+(Cb* V b)

– these are funds received as payment for goods and services sold for a month, quarter, year, including funds received from the sale of finished products and semi-finished products of own production, works and services... The main source of payment for obligations is essentially impersonal cash receipts , which can be used to reimburse current costs, be placed in a bank, used for capital construction, etc.

7. We predict the amount of cash flows and cash balances, that is, we compose budget cash flow is a plan of cash receipts and payments for all areas of the enterprise’s activities. Formed using the balance method. The goals of this budget are: 1) to check the reality of the sources of cash flows and the validity of expenses. 2) assess the ability of the enterprise to fulfill its obligations to creditors. 3) to justify the analysis of the synchronicity of expressed flows. 4) to determine the enterprise’s need for short-term borrowed funds.

Balance of cash balance at CP = Balance of cash account at CP + Receipts – Disposals

Table 2.7. Cash flow budget of the enterprise, million rubles.

Index	Quarter	In a year
I	II	III	IV
Opening balance	18,64	37,647875	70,778375	104,82125	18,64
*Receipts*
Debtors of the previous period	70	74,295	65,165	65,165	74,295
Implementation of the current period	74,295	65,165	65,165	74,295	278,92
Total receipts	144,295	139,46	130,33	139,46	553,545
*Payments*
Procurement of raw materials and materials	11,56425	10,489	11,56425	12,6395	46,257
Manufacturing workforce	21,112875	19,698	21,112875	22,52775	84,4515
Factory overhead (no depreciation)	17,9225	17,455	17,9225	18,39	71,69
Selling and administrative expenses	30,5	30,5	30,5	30,5	122
Capital investments	35	19	6	18	78
Paying taxes	9,1875	9,1875	9,1875	9,1875	36,75
Total payment amount	125,287125	106,3295	96,287125	111,24475	439,1485
Closing cash balance	37,647875	70,778375	104,82125	133,0365	133,0365

8. Let’s determine the estimated profit, that is, we will draw up Form No. 2 of the financial statements “Profit and Loss Statement”

Table 2.8. Profit (loss) statement, million rubles.

9. We draw up a forecast balance of the enterprise’s activities.

Table 2.9. Forecast balance of the enterprise, million rubles.

Index	Meaning
ASSETS
1.		813
including:
1.1.		953
1.2.	Depreciation	140
2.		236,054875
2.1.	Finished goods inventories	22,403625
2.2.	Stocks of raw materials and materials	6,31975
2.3.	Accounts receivable	74,295
2.4.	Cash	133,0365
Balance	1049,054875
PASSIVE
1.		978,231705
including:
1.1.	Authorized (share) capital	735
1.2.	retained earnings	243,2317
1.2.1. Opening balance	91
	152,2317
2.	Long-term loans
3.		70,82317
3.1.	Tax payables	48,07317
3.2.	Other accounts payable	22,75
Balance	1049,054875

10. Let’s evaluate the effectiveness of the forecast based on the indicator net profitability assets.

R= (PE/Assets) *100%

Fact: R=79.8/885.5= 0.09011 (9.01%)

Forecast: R= 152.231705/1049.054875=0.145113 (14.51%)

Net return on assets in the forecast year increased by 5.5% compared to the actual year. Those. in the base (actual) year by 1 rub. assets of the enterprise accounted for 9 kopecks of profit, and in the forecast year this value increased to 14.5 kopecks. An increase in net return on assets indicates the effectiveness of the forecast, which is also evidenced by an increase in net profit in the forecast year.

3. Forecasting using the method of proportional dependencies.

3.1. Background information.

Determine the need for additional external financing of the enterprise JSC Leader for the year following the planned one. The expected increase in sales will be TP = 19%. Also assume full utilization of production capacity and the necessary increase in the growth of fixed assets to ensure a new sales volume will also be 19%. In this case, all asset items, including fixed capital and current liabilities, change in proportion to sales volume. The rate of distribution of net profit for dividends should be ND = 36%.

Table 1. Profit (loss) statement, million rubles.

Table 2. Balance sheet of the enterprise, million rubles.

Index	Meaning
ASSETS
1.	Fixed assets and other non-current assets – total,	813
including:
1.1.	Equipment and machinery (at original cost)	953
1.2.	Depreciation	140
2.	Current assets – total, including:	236,054875
2.1.	Finished goods inventories	22,403625
2.2.	Stocks of raw materials and materials	6,31975
2.3.	Accounts receivable	74,295
2.4.	Cash	133,0365
Balance	1049,054875
PASSIVE
1.	Sources of own funds – total,	978,231705
including:
1.1.	Authorized (share) capital	735
1.2.	retained earnings	243,2317
1.2.1. Opening balance	91
1.2.2. Profit for the planned year	152,2317
2.	Long-term loans
3.	Current liabilities – total, including:	70,82317
3.1.	Tax payables	48,07317
3.2.	Other accounts payable	22,75
Balance	1049,054875

The estimated increase in sales is 19%.

The rate of distribution of net profit for dividends is 36%.

3.2. Making a forecast.

HR of sales = PE / BP ∙ 100% = 152.2317 / 557.84 ∙ 100% = 27.29%.

Since the level of net return on sales is set at the level of last year, i.e. it does not change, therefore, the amount of net profit changes in proportion to the amount of sales revenue, i.e. also increases by 189%.

NerPRprognoz.year = PE∙(1-ND) = PRsales ∙ VRpr ∙ (1 – ND) = 0.2729 ∙ 1.19 ∙ 557.84 ∙ (1 - 0.36) = 115.9418 million rubles.

Asset: Vn.Apr = VnAf ∙ Tr BP = 813 ∙ 1.19 = 967.47 million rubles.

ObApr = ObAf ∙ Tr BP = 236.0549 ∙ 1.19 = 280.905 million rubles.

Total Apr = 1248.375 million rubles.

Liability: UK ≈ const = 735 million rubles.

TO ≈ const = 0 million rub.

KOpr = KOf ∙ Tr BP = 70.82317 ∙ 1.19 = 84.2796 million rubles.

NerPRpr = NerPRng + NerPRprognoz.year = 243.2317 + 115.9418 = 359.1735 million rubles.

Total Ppr = 1178.4531 million rubles.

Apr - Ppr = 1248.375 – 1178.4531 = 69.9219 million rubles. > 0, therefore there is a need for additional external financing (ADF).

Index	Base period	Forecast period
1.	Current assets	236,0549	280,905
2.	Fixed assets	813	967,47
Total asset	1049,0549	1248,375
3.	Current responsibility	70,82317	84,2796
4.	long term duties
5.	Total liabilities	70,82317	84,2796
6.	Authorized capital	735	735
7.	retained earnings	243,2317	359,1735
8.	Total equity	978,2317	1094,1735
Total liabilities	1049,0548	1178,4531
Required external financing	69,9219
Total	1248,375

To ensure the projected sales volume, new capital investments in the amount of 154.47 million rubles are required.

At the same time, the increase in current assets should amount to 44.8502 million rubles.

The increase in funding sources does not cover the increasing needs, resulting in a deficit of 69.9219 million rubles.

Thus, to ensure a given sales volume, the company needs to attract 69.9219 million rubles. own or borrowed funds.

Conclusion.

1. Based on a comprehensive and multilateral study of the organization and planning of budget revenues, it is possible to outline the main directions of budget development in the future, as well as the implementation of a set of measures at all stages of the budget process within the framework of the general concept of its development and reform. In particular, in the area of income generation, the following can be proposed:

1. Application of more progressive planning methods and

forecasting, providing multivariate calculations based on

economic and mathematical methods and modeling, choosing the optimal

option; transition to multi-option draft budgeting.

2. Increasing the validity of macroeconomic indicators as

basics of budget income planning.

3. Obtaining reliable and objective information about the proposed

changes in tax and customs legislation for calculating the base

taxation; development of a legal reform program, including a program

taxation.

4. Restructuring of budget revenues. This means optimal

a combination of direct and indirect taxes, taxes and non-tax payments,

budget revenues and trust funds; strengthening the role of market sources in

formation of budget revenues (receipts from privatization

state ownership, sale of state-owned shares,

property taxes, etc.).

5.Improving tax planning; tax optimization

loads.

6. Refusal to plan the amounts of fines and sanctions as part of income

7. Gradual elimination of target budget funds (except for funds

social orientation), formation of an integrated structure

8. Reforming the mechanism for redistributing budget resources

through a system of transfers from the financial support fund for administrative

territorial units.

9. Strengthening and development of the legislative framework for taxation,

including the delimitation of powers of various branches of government in regulation

taxation.

Having examined budget planning and forecasting, as well as their methods, in this work, we can conclude that the income planning methodology is not legally established and therefore there are no uniform methods and principles of planning, however, government bodies responsible for drawing up budget projects apply general principles and methods planning. For budget planning, and in particular budget revenue planning, interscientific planning methods are mainly used, in particular the extrapolation method and the method of expert assessments.

2. Budgeting is a system of short-term planning, accounting and control of resources and performance results of a commercial organization by responsibility centers, which allows you to analyze predicted and obtained performance indicators for the purpose of enterprise management.

Planning the activities of JSC Leader using the budgeting method showed that the enterprise will not need to attract additional funds, because there is a positive final cash balance. Net return on sales increased by 5.5% compared to the previous year. The net profit of the enterprise also increased. All this indicates a fairly stable financial condition of the enterprise and the effectiveness of the forecast.

3. The method of proportional dependencies is a method of dependence of performance indicators on sales revenue. When using this method, the ultimate goal is to determine the need for additional external financing.

Forecasting using the method of proportional dependencies showed that to ensure the forecast sales volume, new capital investments in the amount of 154.47 million rubles are required. At the same time, the increase in current assets should amount to 44.8502 million rubles. The increase in sources of financing does not cover the increase in needs; a deficit is formed in the amount of 69.9219 million rubles. Thus, to ensure a given sales volume, the company needs to attract 69.9219 million rubles. own or borrowed funds.

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11. “Budget forecasting in the Russian Federation” / Maslov K.A. – 2006

12. “Methodology for planning revenues of the Federal budget” / Morina O.M. -2005

Tax revenue planning. Tax revenue planning is a sequence of actions by all branches of government related to the development of forecast data on the collection of tax payments. Depending on the level of the business entity, tax planning is divided into two levels: · tax planning at the macro level; · tax planning at the level of a business entity or organization. Tax planning at the macro level. Covers the scope of planning on the scale of federal, regional and local budgets. The main task of tax planning at this level is to determine for a given time period the economically justified amount of tax revenues to the corresponding link of the budget system. There are current (operational, short-term) and long-term (medium-term, long-term) tax planning. Operational planning, carried out for a month or quarter, is designed to provide a realistic assessment of tax revenues in the near future. Short-term tax planning serves as the basis for drawing up budgets for the corresponding levels of government for the next year. During current planning, the size of both the total set of taxes and their individual types is analyzed in detail and determined. In long-term planning there is no division by type of taxes; it covers the totality of all taxes. Both current and long-term planning are simultaneously based on the forecast of the country's socio-economic development for the corresponding period of time and serve as the basis for determining the main characteristics of this forecast. In general, the tax planning process can be represented in the form of the following scheme of actions: 1. goals are established to achieve which the taxation system is oriented; 2. methods and specific measures for achieving the set goals are developed; 3. tax powers and revenue sources are delineated between authorities and management at various levels; 4. an assessment is made of the dynamics of tax receipts for previous periods in comparable conditions, taking into account changes in tax legislation; 5. the level of collection and debt for each tax is analyzed; 6. an assessment is made of the proposed changes in tax legislation; the tax base for each tax is determined taking into account the forecast of socio-economic development of the country and individual industries.
Planning of non-tax revenues. The basis for planning non-tax budget revenues is a new order - the functions of forecasting these revenues are assigned to revenue administrators. In accordance with the order of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation (No. 114 of December 10, 2004), as part of the budget process, budget revenue administrators monitor, control, analyze and forecast revenue receipts from the relevant revenue source and submit revenue projections for the next financial year to the relevant financial authorities . Revenue administrator is a new concept in financial and budget planning and forecasting of the Russian Federation. Currently, non-tax revenue forecasting is carried out by revenue administrators based on data from previous periods (extrapolation method), taking into account planned changes in legislation, as well as the pace of economic and social development. In the composition of non-tax revenues of the federal budget, the largest share is occupied by income received by the state from foreign economic activity; the main share of this income comes from customs duties. When planning income from foreign economic activity, customs duties and others from foreign economic activity are forecast separately. Customs duties are planned according to the following formula: Sitog = Item (1) + Item (2) +... + Item (T), where Sitog is customs duties, fees and other payments transferred in full to the federal budget; Spunkt – the total amount of customs payments transferred to the federal budget by one customs point; T – the number of customs points carrying out this type of activity on the territory of the Russian Federation. Income from foreign economic activity is planned according to the formula: FEA=SS(1)+SS(2)+...+SS(N), where N is the number of transactions carried out by the state in the foreign economic sphere with the receipt of funds and their transfer to the budget; CC - the amount of funds received by the state from one transaction. Calculation of other non-tax income. Income from the use of property in state and municipal ownership, and income from the provision of paid services and compensation of costs occupy the largest share in the composition of non-tax revenues of the federal budget, as well as in the structure of non-tax revenues of the budgets of the constituent entities of the Federation and local authorities.

The settlements are implemented in the context of specific types of deductions, in relation to which the administration is vested with the powers of the main manager of funds. It is used to analyze the volume of amounts that are expected to be received in the next financial period from the population, organizations, and institutions. The administration issues a resolution to approve the income forecasting methodology.

Calculation methods

Budget revenue planning is carried out by:

Direct calculation. This method is based on the direct use of expected indicators (cost and volume), rate levels and other quantities that determine the value of the expected amounts.
Averaging. This method of forecasting revenue receipts is implemented on the basis of calculating the average volume of deductions for a period of at least 3 years or for the entire period of replenishment of the treasury of the Moscow Region with the corresponding types of deductions, if it does not exceed three years.

The administration may provide other payment methods.

Payment categories

The developed methodology for forecasting budget revenues is used to calculate the expected:

Amounts deducted from the rental of material assets transferred to territorial government bodies and institutions created by them for operational management. The exception is the property of autonomous and municipal budgetary organizations.
Rent, funds from the exercise of rights to conclude agreements on the transfer for use of land that is the property of administrative-territorial units included in the municipality. The exception is the plots of autonomous and municipal budgetary structures.
Other amounts deducted from the use of material assets that are the property of administrative-territorial units included in the Moscow Region. The exception is the property of municipal autonomous and budgetary institutions, unitary, including state-owned enterprises.

To analyze the expected volume of deductions of these amounts, a methodology for forecasting income is used, based on direct and average calculation methods.

Rent

The income forecasting method includes calculating the amounts that can be transferred by land users in the coming year. For this, the following equation is used:

A = C x P, in which:

The price of the plot is determined on the basis of an assessment completed no more than six months before signing the lease agreement. The amount that is expected to be deducted for the use of property owned, as well as for operational management, is calculated using the formula:

AI = (AItg + Su + Cs) x K, in which:

the amount of rental property expected to be paid next year - AI;
estimated amount in the current period - Aitg;
the amount of reduction in deductions due to a reduction in areas provided for use in the next year - Сс;
the amount of increase in revenues for property in connection with the expected increase in objects leased in the coming period - Su;
expected deflator coefficient, which is applied to the rate of payment for the use of material assets or to their estimated value in the next year - K.

To calculate the total volume of these amounts in the coming period, the income forecasting methodology provides the following equation:

AZI (p) = (AZI (t) + AZI (t-1) + AZI (t-2))/3, in which:

rent for property and land - AZI (r);
AZI (t) ... AZI (t-1) - the actual (estimated) value of the annual amounts for 3 years preceding the future.

Amounts from the sale of material assets

The income forecasting methodology provides the following formula for calculation:

RI = Pl x St, in which:

amounts from sales - RI;
average cost of 1 sq. m of real estate, determined based on the results of auctions organized in the period preceding the settlement period - St;
area of structures, buildings, premises subject to sale in the next year - Pl.

The calculation of the volumes of the specified amounts for the planning period is performed using the following equation:

RI (p) = (RI (t) + RI (t-1) + RI (t-2))/3, in which:

Variable amounts

The average methodology for forecasting the receipt of non-tax revenues is used when calculating expected deductions made unsystematically. The initial data is the average annual volume of actual amounts received over the previous three years. These indicators are taken from reports on the execution of budget items (form 0503127). The following amounts are classified as non-permanent:

Formulas

The methodology for forecasting non-tax revenues provides the following calculation method:

P = (P (m) + P (m-1) + P (m-2) + P (m-3))/4, where

P (m) ... P (m-3) - the actual value of the amounts received for 3 reporting periods;
P (m) - the expected amount of funds in the current year.

The last indicator is calculated using the formula:

P (m)= (Po (m) / k) *12, in which:

Po (m) - the actual amount of amounts received for the completed period in the current year;
k - the number of months of the completed reporting period in the current period. year.

The determination of the total volume of the above amounts for the coming period is made using the following equation:

P (p) = (P (t) + P (t-1) + P (t-2))/3, in which:

P (t) ... P (t-2) - the estimated (actual) value of the annual amounts received during the three years preceding the forecast one.

Free funds

The volumes of such amounts coming from the regional budget are predicted in accordance with the indicators established in the legislative acts of the subject or regulatory documents of the authorities. The amount of gratuitous funds from the district fund expected to be credited is calculated according to the values provided for in the decision on the composition of financial items for the coming period.

Conclusion

Forecasting budget revenues is of particular importance for rural settlements. Using various calculation options, the administration can analyze the amount of funds that may be at its disposal. This, in turn, ensures planning of expenses for upcoming periods. The calculation of the expected volumes of funds is preceded by an analysis of the amounts already received previously. In accordance with the results of the assessment, the administration has the opportunity to identify promising areas for spending finances and using property that is the property of the administrative-territorial unit in the operational management of institutions and enterprises. Properly used methods of analysis and calculation make it possible to achieve greater independence from regional and municipal subsidies.